What's driving the Utah Royals? And other NWSL musings.
The Utah Royals are sustainably defying expectations. How are they doing it? And where does that put them in the NWSL hierarchy?
Utah, am I right?
This newsletter was not high on the Utah Royals before the season kicked off, but unlike my thoughts on Dirty Soda, it’s time to reset our priors. The Royals are unbeaten since Narumi Miura and Mina Tanaka returned victorious in the Asian Cup.
The Royals kicked off the year with a 2-1 loss in KC, followed by a 1-2 loss to San Diego, but since then it’s been a run for Jimmy Coentraets’s squad.
It’s been 468 minutes since the Royals conceded a goal, a 7-0 goal differential that includes wins over Angel City, Houston, Seattle, and Chicago.
So, how are they doing it?
The Royals want to possess the ball in their compact 4-2-3-1, creating chances through Mina Tanaka, Cloé Lacasse, and Cece Delzer, and will usually regroup and defend in that compact block when they lose possession. The Royals have the lowest PPDA (passes per defensive action) in the league, and the counterpress through their midblock has been lethal. The Royals can then quickly turn the ball into Mina Tanaka and create danger in the attacking, see the opening goal vs Houston last week:
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This team is, dare I say, good? Especially with Tanaka pulling the strings for the players in front of her, who know their roles well.
“She is just very free, she’s feeling like herself, she’s moving well, she’s just having fun.” Jimmy Coentraets said following her 2 assist performance vs Houston. “I know Mina is a smart player. We brought her in 3 years ago, obviously with very high expectations, and I still think we’ve only seen about 75-80% of that, and we’ve seen it happen, nights like tonight, where if she can just keep her level up and stay healthy, then I think she should be in the Team of the Season.”
The Royals currently sit in a home playoff spot, and while they drop to 5th in the expected points table, it’s still a squad that should feel confident with home matches against Racing Louisville and Denver before finishing out the first half of the season away to Portland.
They should expect to grab at least 6 points from those matches, and their underlying stats have been better than all 3 opponents. This feels sustainable, but the schedule has been beneficial. They’ll play Orlando, Gotham, and North Carolina twice when the schedule picks back up after the World Cup, so they’ll need to bank some points, but this isn’t the case of a team leaning over its skis before falling headfirst into a disastrous second half. Obviously, this isn’t a team that can afford to lose contributors to injury; the depth isn’t there, but if they can continue to stay healthy and find the most out of players like Cece Delzer then perhaps a home playoff match is in the cards. A good spot for a manager who was under fire after starting 0-2.
Alright, let’s say a little something about the rest of the league now.
Bay FC
Bay wasn’t able to upend Utah’s shutout streak, but Emma Coates’s side was able to keep the Royals off the scoreboard. A scoreless draw kept Bay within shouting distance of the playoff spots, but there are still glaring chance creation issues here. Alex Pfeiffer – who hasn’t played since the international window – still leads Bay in both goals and assists with 2 each. It’s a shame that Racheal Kundananji returned to full strength as Pfeiffer went down, but even with both attackers healthy, no Bay player has created more than a single big chance this season.
If it wasn’t for Jordan Silkowitz’s play in goal – 3 goals prevented on 31 saves – the playoff spots would be out of reach. Perhaps this is a case of keeping their head above water until they can reinforce in the summer, but if they don’t, it will be bleak if Silkowitz’s form even slightly drops. That being said, if they nail the CAM signing, then they’ll be in business.
How many qualifiers can I fit into one team’s blurb?
Gotham FC
I’m not as worried about Gotham as I was a month ago, but the 1-1 home draw to the Legacy is a result that could come back to haunt them down the line. Besides, we learned last season not to count results that don’t feature Rose Lavelle.
A strange fact: Jordynne Dudley is the only Gotham player in the top 30 of the xG chart and the only other player besides Rose Lavelle that is in the top 30 of the NWSL g+ chart – Lavelle is 3rd while Dudley is 5th.
Boston Legacy
Meanwhile, the draw is a very good result for Filipa Patão and her Barking Swans.
Last in the table, sure, but the Legacy have 5 points in their last 3 matches against Chicago, Denver, and Gotham. It’s a combination of better goalkeeping from Casey Murphy, the rise of Sammy Smith, Alba Caño’s elite shot selection numbers, and finally seeing the vision of Bianca St-Georges role in the lineup as the free flowing outside CB.
Washington Spirit
How will the Spirit replace the production of Croix Bethune? Oh, well, just acquire a highly regarded 18-year-old Paraguayan winger that will immediately hit the ground running in the NWSL… of course.
I highlighted Claudia Martinez’s Copa América campaign following the Spirit’s $1 million acquisition of the young winger, but I did not expect 3 goals in mostly relief appearances before the World Cup break. Even more impressive, Martínez ranks 10th in NWSL goals added in just 338 minutes played. Of course, that’s largely coming at the end of matches against tired legs, but the teenager has scored the winner in back-to-back matches. The option to sub off Rose Kouassi for Martínez kind of explains why the Spirit are absolutely flying right now.
5 straight wins and unbeaten since the opening night loss to Portland, it’s Shield or bust, even with the Concacaf semifinal vs Pachuca right around the corner.
Seattle Reign
The Reign continue to be one of the most perplexing teams in the league but it’s worth pointing out that Adrían González gave Laura Harvey her flowers with how tough the Reign made it for the Spirit to operate in the 0-1 result this weekend.
From friend of the Newsletter, Jason Anderson:
Jason Anderson
There’s an idea that the Reign have resorted to suffer ball this season, akin to previous seasons, but the stats don’t quite bear that out. The Reign have been great defensively, allowing 8 goals on 10.1 expected goals while scoring 7 goals while creating 9.1 expected goals. So, ideally, Seattle matches would be more thrilling, but Claudia Dickey has once again been in her bag, while the strikers just can’t seem to figure out how to make the most of the chances being created.
It pains me as someone who holds Mia Fishel stock, but the Reign haven’t scored in 4 matches, and she has been outscored 2-0 by Madison Mercado this season.
Portland Thorns
The Thorns entered the weekend on top of the table, but their spot at the pinnacle is tenuous, just as it has been for every team that has found itself on top this season. The result in Louisville will be remembered as a disappointment, but there was still positive play to salvage from the performance. Olivia Moultrie and Sophia Wilson combined for another goal, Moultrie’s 4th goal contribution over the last 3 matches, and Wilson’s 3rd goal in 4 matches since her return to the national team last month.
Thorns still sit atop the table…
Racing Louisville
Katie O’Kane scored one professional goal heading into Friday’s match with top of the table Portland Thorns. So it should surprise you to learn that she ended the night with a brace that included a free kick golazo for the game winning goal.
Louisville has been due for this performance after back to back shut outs vs Washington and Gotham, and it was helped by the return of Quincy McMahon at FB, along with Taylor Flint’s outsized role in this iteration of the 4-3-3.
Emma Sears sealed it with her goal off the bench. It’s hard to imagine a better outcome for Bev Yanez’s side.
San Diego Wave
San Diego is... Back?
Maybe, or maybe Angel City is just in that much trouble right now.
Boots on the Ground
There are actually some really positive signs for the Wave despite the 2 straight losses heading into this one, and that’s in the Wave’s position atop the expected results table where they’ve underdelivered on their xG by almost 3 goals. The good news? xG is a great predictor of future success. The better news? Cat Macario has yet to lace up for the Wave.
The Wave hosts DC as they have to juggle CONCACAF play, and there’s a chance to regain the top spot in the table before the end of the month.
Angel City FC
The 2-1 loss to San Diego was the dagger in ACFC’s aura as a contender this season. After starting 3-0-0 against Chicago, Bay, and Houston, the Angels have fallen in four straight losses to Orlando, Portland, Utah, and San Diego. That’s a tough run of matches – even with 3 straight at home – but if ACFC were to contend for the title this season, then those are the matches they have to be winning. There’s still time to right the ship, but Riley Tiernan’s regression has hurt, and there’s clearly a piece missing in the midfield.
Orlando Pride
The Pride still has the aura of a top NWSL team, but they’ve lacked the results to back it up. Well, the 1-0 win over North Carolina was a step up, and it’s in large part thanks to Barbra Banda’s inevitability.
No other player is in Banda’s stratosphere right now. No player is within 2 g+ of Banda’s 3.79 goals added, no other player is within 2 xG of Banda’s 5.86 xG, and no other player is within 3 goals of her 8 goals atop the Golden Boot race.
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Banda is special.
North Carolina Courage
It’s now just 1 point in the last 3 matches for the Courage, but that oversells Mak Lind’s squad’s actual situation. These losses have largely been coin tosses; they haven’t been blown out of the water, but there are still moments when the defensive structure loosens up as they push forward.
That’s the price to pay for young contributors; Lind has had to rely on talented youth such as Riley Jackson and an 18-year-old Lauryn Thompson, who made her pro debut in Orlando.
They’re underperforming their underlying stats, which will even out, even if they are a few pieces shy. Manaka has yet to find her true form within Lind’s system.
Houston Dash
The wheels are coming loose in Houston, and this 1-4 loss was the worst of the bunch.
The Dash could never grab control of the match, the attack became disconnected, and none of Fabrice Gautrat’s tweaks and subs had much of an impact. Is this just the cost of relying on inexperienced players? Just one goal in 4 games, and the PPDA numbers have dropped significantly. Those two stats are related.
Denver Summit
The Summit has continued to surprise me, and this demolition of Houston was the latest feather in the cap of Nick Cushing’s early run of form. Against Houston, the FBs pushed high into the wings, and the result was an Ayo Oke assist and a Janine Sonis brace. Denver feasted in the wide spaces, which allowed Yazmeen Ryan to float into the right channel to stamp off a two-assist performance.
Does Lyndsey Heaps take this team from the bottom of the muck to the top? It’s not unreasonable to think she will.
KC Current
Croix Bethune is now 2nd in NWSL goals added, while Michelle Cooper and Temwa Chawinga are 7th and 8th. It’s a no-brainer, but Chawinga’s return to full effectiveness post-injury has unlocked KC’s attacking potential. A win in North Carolina last weekend, followed by a 3-0 stomping of the Stars at CPKC stadium. This is more about the Stars' tragic run of form than the Current finding their form of the past two years, but things have improved greatly since the 4-0 loss to the Spirit.
Chawinga’s hat trick displayed a tough dilemma for opposing defenses. Either stack the right side while Sentnor, Cooper, and Bethune overload in the buildup and leave Chawinga alone on the weak side, or commit fewer numbers to defending the overload in hopes that you can more stoutly defend the weak side movement. Now, this is a harder conversation for the Stars than most other squads, given their FB depth, and the Spirit showed the league a blueprint in how to win in the wide areas, but Chris Armas’s side is becoming more goal dangerous.
The next 3 matches will be telling. Sandwiched between home matches vs Houston and Portland, the Current travel to the struggling Angel City FC. There’s a real chance that they win 3 out of 4 heading into the World Cup break, pushing them towards a top 4 spot in the table.
Chicago Stars
Yeesh… the lack of FBs on this roster has surprisingly come back to haunt the stars.
At least Elise Evans has been found.
Lesley Ryder
Conclusion:
Alright folks. That’s it from me this week. I switched up the format from the usual Power Rankings, as it has become quite daunting.
Hopefully, this is a little more manageable for both you and me.
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