What lessons were learned in St. Louis CITY SC's 2-3 loss to San Jose?

St. Louis CITY SC should have walked away from their date with San Jose with, at the very least, a share of the points, but CITY SC left points on the table thanks to errors in big moments, as has become tradition.

A loss to San Jose isn’t a death knell; the Quakes are 9-0-1 with their lone loss against a Seattle squad that stole the win through an impossible goalkeeping display. St. Louis were not so lucky. CITY SC quickly fell behind the 8 ball in the 8th minute following a relatively innocuous clearance off Roman Bürki’s foot. Max Floriani climbed over Sergio Córdova to knock the ball into space, and St. Louis had to quickly change direction after initially charging forward.

San Jose are great at creating numbers advantages in the attack, and while blame could maybe fall at the feet of Palvara for not reacting quick enough to Judd’s run, the runs are designed to create that confusion. The blame more lies at another CITY SC turnover ahead of a goal against. That’s been a recurring theme. Yoann Damet answered to the trend post match, citing the risk and reward of sending the wingbacks high.

“Twice the ball comes where we are unbalanced and we are running towards our goal.” Damet started. “The way we try to be proactive with the ball and without it, you accept that you are taking some risk. And again those kind of players and also the level of quality they have got and half a chance can be in the back of the net. So, we have to play with risk and reward in the way we want to play with the ball and also in the way we want to defend. We accept that. I think it makes our strength in terms of how we are able to manipulate the opposition and attack, but also how we are able to win the ball back higher up the pitch. And in those moments, of course you see the quality of a guy like that tonight. But again, I think there is key moments in those plays that we can sort out before the goals get there.”

The goal didn’t change the game state too much for St. Louis.

Judd’s goal comes following a chance for Conrad Wallem at the top of SJ’s box as he cut in from the wing to capture the wide open space, unfortunately his shot isn’t on target. Wallem’s miss is emblematic of CITY SC’s season of scoring woes, and while they eventually claw back two goals to take the lead, the near misses on 2.08 first half xG is precisely why the club sits in 14th place in the west through 9 matches.

The frustration comes in when you take a peek under the hood.

St. Louis haven’t performed like a basement dweller despite their spot in the basement of the table. Mediocre, sure, but if they simply play up to the chances they are creating, if they simply get the saves and stops that they are supposed to, then you’re looking at a squad that is sitting at the bottom of the playoff spots as opposed to the bottom of the table.

St. Louis have had some success in the system, especially given the front loaded quality of opponents but they aren’t performing up to their underlying numbers and that points to problems within the roster construction as it stands.

Entering the 2nd half, CITY SC attempted to correct the record. Sergio Córdova finally found the back of the net following a nice run from the wing and a patient pass from Marcel Hartel, who was rewarded with a goal of his own 90 seconds later.

Córdova’s goal was momentous for the Venezualan temporary DP, his first goal across all competitions since October, and rewarded Damet’s early patience in the target man.

“it’s a breath of fresh air.” Cordova reflected afterwards (translated from Spanish.) “Personally, it's been tough. I’m here alone in a new country, so it's been difficult in that aspect. I know the quality that I has. I believe in myself. I know that I can perform at the top level. I’m very happy with the goal. But again, it's not about me, not about the goal, it's about getting the three points.”

Moments later, Hartel would make it 2-1 St. Louis and for a moment, it seemed like CITY SC could finally pull out an extant result.

"We won the ball. He saw me in the box, he played me the ball, and then it's just... yeah." Hartel recalled. "We also tried in the first half to score that goal, and this time it worked out, and we get the lead, and afterwards, we just have to do better to take the result home."

However, as San Jose’s usual starting XI trickled into the match, the Quakes feasted on the space between the wingbacks pushing into the wings and the outside CBs.

Now is a good time to take the L on my “Timo Werner” is washed take following his return to RB Leipzig. Werner is 6th on the league's goals added leaderboard, trailing names like Lionel Messi and... Preston Judd.

Werner drilled his PK past Roman Bürki who happened to guess exactly where Werner would place his shot. Then, in the 83rd minute as the Quakes worked from right to left, Ousseni Bouda finds Werner cutting in from the wing, and the German strikes the cross clean.

Some blame for this one relies with MacNaughton.

The CB failed to recognize that Durkin covered the late run down the middle and left the backside of the box completely unmarked as the Bouda's pass fell right onto Werner’s boot. Wallem is trapped high following a diagonal run into the middle before CITY SC made an unfortunate turnover as Werner waited patiently behind the play until he could time his run into the gap.

It's the story of the match.

Before that, Sj earned the PK after Daniel’s quick throw out of a collected corner leading to the 2nd week in a row where Conrad Wallem took a poor defensive posture as CITY SC had numbers to defend the attack. Wallem is collected, he is in front of the play, but just like the PK in Seattle, he is too aggressive and steps through Tsakiris at the top of the box.

The third goal is a transition off of the goal kick.

Bouda wins the footrace vs Polvara down the wing but CITY SC had numbers in front of the ball.

Would subs for Polvara and MacNaughton have changed the outcome?

It’s clear that Damet hasn’t seen what he’s looking for out of Mbacke and Fallou Fall as both try to get up to speed. Damet has been somewhat guarded when asked about the players post match but there’s something in training and both player’s CITY2 performances that haven’t been up to the standard. Jaziel Orozco’s concussion essentially taking away the only sub Damet has been comfortable with along the backline, especially with the USOC match vs Chicago looming midweek.

That takes me to my final point:

A roster in flux.

In an ideal world, Edu Löwen would be more than 10 minutes fit, and Damet would trust in Miggy Perez and Mykhi Joyner to come off the bench and make an impact.

CITY SC have 9 players with positive g+ numbers in the ASA database and 3 of those players are Joyner, Perez, and Löwen.

There are a few caveats in those numbers especially when it comes to the CDMs. Chris Durkin's g+ isn't representative of how good he's been this season as the defensive link and Daniel Edelman is 3rd in xG but doesn't reflect well in the g+ formula since the pair is asked to pass away from goal as CITY SC collects in possession. Similarly, it would take some serious minutes in the Starting XI to convince me that Brendan McSorely’s output wouldn’t regress to the mean if he isn’t seeing the majority of his minutes in late match opportunities.

However, there’s a serious need to throw all of the minutes he can handle at Edu Löwen before the World Cup break, whether that’s in the right sided 10 role that Damet has seemed to prefer, or in the double pivot for Edelman reprising his role from previous seasons. The frustration at his usage since his return is somewhat warranted. Damet, for the time being, has been cautious as to not throw too much at the returning midfielder too soon. You can see some of that concern in just how much is demanded out of the midfield to run and keep the structure, and Löwen is not yet at the fitness level after returning to training at the end of last month.

“We tried to have a push like in the last ten, fifteen minutes of the game with the extra time, and that's the reason why he came on pitch.” Damet said. “He brings a lot of quality. So I think it's great to see him back. It's great to have him come in in those moments where he can also make a difference and give him a feeling of what it's like to be back like in and around the team. So, again, I'd much rather put him in conditions that are better than that than us chasing to score. But at the moment, like that's the situation we are in. And hopefully there is more to come for him in the coming weeks.”

The message has been clear, Löwen isn’t mentally or physically ready for the demand of starting minutes after the past 2+ years, but the desire to see more out of him is understandable. CITY SC often look like a different team with him in the lineup, and the numbers back up his impact, even in his pair of late appearances.

Conclusion

The loss stings after CITY SC held the lead, and stings after CITY SC had so much in the attack without anything to show for it in the first half, but this is still a team that is 2 or 3 pieces (or the full commitment to Mykhi Joyner) away from truly competing, and the loss doesn’t change that reality.

Now, the focus shifts to Wednesday’s Round of 16 derby with Chicago as CITY SC look to punch their ticket to the US Open Cup Quarterfinals before heading to Austin next weekend where CITY SC essentially have to grab all 3 points.

The Fire ran over Sporting KC 5-0 on Saturday in preparation for this showdown, and are currently 3rd in the Eastern Conference. Expect some rotation from both sides, longer run outs from the bench for Edu Löwen and potentially Tomáš Ostrák, and “rotated” starts for Miggy Perez and Mykhi Joyner that could be seen as stronger lineup choices in the first place... but there is pressure mounting.

More on that matchup in this week’s training notebook.

Alright folks, yell at me about the subs in the comments, subscribe if you haven’t already, consider supporting my work, and have a great Sunday.