St. Louis CITY SC survive a frustrating collapse in DC. Looking ahead to the USOC Quarterfinal.
St. Louis CITY SC drew DC United in the club's final away match before the World Cup break. It's a good result in a vacuum but a big missed opportunity in reality. Let's talk about it.
St. Louis CITY SC’s trip to DC was always going to be an uphill battle.
The tight turnaround before Tuesday’s US Open Cup Quarterfinal meant that Yoann Damet would have to rotate more than he is typically comfortable with, given the current roster and given the sickness making its way through the squad.
So, Damet rotated.
Only Roman Burki, Dante Polvara, Timo Baumgartl, and Sangbin Jeong carried over from Wednesday’s win over LAFC with Chris Durkin and Conrad Wallem the only players that will most likely start on Tuesday (along with Burki, Baumgartl, and Polvara, of course).
The Game:
St. Louis, somehow, with the most aggressive rotation (in MLS play) of the Yoann Damet era, escaped the Capital with a share of the points.
At kickoff, it seemed like CITY SC would be in for a long day at the office, but the midfield started to find dominance in the run of play behind Chris Durkin’s stellar play against his boyhood club and Sangbin’s speed in transition.
The mostly 2nd choice squad – albeit filled with some of St. Louis’s best dribblers via ASA’s g+ model – should have even grabbed the lead before the half.
However, DC’s defensive structure was able to slide in front of some of CITY SC’s more dangerous chances in open play, while Fallou Fall’s influence on dead balls resulted in 0.57 xG on 6 shots from corners and set pieces. After just 1 shot in the first 25 minutes, CITY SC outshot DCU 12-1 over the final 20 minutes of the half.
It seemed as if this would be another match where St. Louis would pay for not taking advantage of its dominant play throughout the first half.
In a shocking turn of events, that’s not exactly what happened.
CITY SC came out in the 2nd half, continued to control possession, and quickly turned the advantage into a 0-1 through Chris Durkin at the top of the box.
It’s another effervescent scoring sequence from the Ravioli Boys, which kicks off following a restart after Tai Baribo collided with Fallou Fall in the box on an earlier sequence. CITY prodded amongst the back 3 before the prodding created a nice switch through DC’s overcommitment and freed Sangbin to break out in transition. Sangbin sent his collected effort to the top of the box, Teuchert left it, and Durkin guided it into the corner for his 2nd of the season and first in his return to DC.
“It's tough, because I always want to celebrate a goal, because I don't score often.” Durkin said after moving into 2nd place in CITY SC goals scored this season… “But, D.C. United gave my dream to me as a boy watching games at RFK, and I'm grateful for the D.C. United organization, and everything they've done for me. So, yeah, it was a bittersweet moment, but I had 18 people in the stands, family, and I had to throw a little bit of a fist pump up for them, and for them taking the two hour drive from Richmond up here. Grateful for them.”
St. Louis continued to take control of the match, but as the first choice subs entered the match in the 63rd minute, the momentum bizarrely flipped in favor of the home side. CITY SC did not manage a shot on target after Durkin’s goal, and only managed one shot attempt following Eduard Löwen, Daniel Edelman, and Sergio Córdova entering the match for Snagbin Jeong, Miggy Perez, and Cedric Teuchert.
In part, DC’s able to grab momentum because they also slightly adjusted their shape to push more numbers forward, but it’s CITY SC’s 3-4-3 wide shape, which wasn’t as effective building with the ball, and wasn’t as effective pressing against the ball.
In the past, this has been Damet’s shut down defensive look, in part, it’s what allows Córdova to help shut down LAFC’s wide spaces earlier in the week. However, as DC sent balls forward, ran at CITY SC in transition, and pressed the 1v1s more effectively, they were able to claw back into the match.
Even then, DC only managed 3 shots – 1 on target – from open play during the advantage. It was their success from dead balls that saw them find the equalizer.
“Frustrating, 100%. I think we need to do a better job at closing games.” Damet said.
DCU equalized off a collected corner with stoppage time looming. It’s another match where CITY SC’s corner defending let them down, and another match where they’ll drop points because of a crucial mistake.
STL Soccer News’ Chris Gebhardt catalogued the mistake well in his usual Bluesky analysis.
STL Soccer News
No one can step up to Joao Peglow quickly enough, and his shot has just enough pace on it to slide past Roman Burki, who is screened by the blob of defenders attempting to close down the goal scorer.
CITY SC just about conceded again at the death from another set piece. Conrad Wallem picked up a 2nd yellow on a careless tackle in transition, and DC continued to pile on the pressure 11v10. Fortunately for CITY SC, old friend Lucas Bartlett – who has been captaining DCU in light of Aaron Herrera looking to leave The District – was a tad offside during the initial kick. As the whistle blew, Damet knew his side threw away an opportunity to return to Energizer Park with all 3 points.
“I understand we're tired, I understand we've been playing for three days.” Damet continued. “The main message after the game to the group is we either need to suck it up and defend all together and still apply some pressure and stick together and fight, or we need to be find a way to keep playing the way we've been playing for 70 minutes, so yes, frustrating and disappointing, because I thought tonight we should have walked out with all the points.”
That quote explains exactly what went wrong. St. Louis was ineffective in pressuring DC’s buildup – a similar affliction that has come up in many of the goals against this season, as I discussed with Matt Rocchio on Friday.
The relevant potion of my conversation from last week's podcast with Matt Rocchio
Ultimately, St. Louis won a point on the road with a drastically rotated squad. That’s something this team would have felt great about before the match, but it’s a missed opportunity with how dominant CITY SC was through certain points of the match, and how they let DC United off the hook. It’s still mission accomplished, but they could have been looking at a home match against a struggling Austin FC with the opportunity to finish a point back of the final playoff spot.
Instead, there’s a little more work to do.
Fallou’s day in the Capital:
Fallou Fall was a big winner of CITY SC’s need to rotate. He showed up defensively while adding 0.37 expected goals in the attack – mainly from set pieces. The Senegalese CB led the match in touches, created 2 chances, made 3 tackles, 7 clearances, 3 recoveries, and 1 last man tackle.
“It was great to see him out there; it was not an easy game,” Damet said of his U22 defender. “I thought the way he's defended for most of the game with the yellow card as well speaks to his abilities. You know, I don't think it's easy for a centerback in these kinds of games where you have to fight, you have to grind, you have to defend in the air, you have to tackle. To be on the yellow early in the game is never easy, but again he gave us some quality on the ball, and was able also to help us defend, so it's good, like we said, we have good competition in those positions, and to have him step in today and have the performance he had is very positive.”
It’s a tough competition at CB, and with Lukas MacNaughton resting, Dante Polvara also had one of his best matches of the season on the right side of the formation. Could this become the preferred backline look with Orozco’s injury? CITY SC only allowed 0.8 xG, with the outside CBs combining for 10 headed clearances, and 0.5 xG+xA.
Roman Bürki is actually on a heater:
There was plenty of noise around Roman Bürki this week following the MLSPA’s release of the up to date salary guide. The truth has come out, and Roman Burki was given a massive raise that will ensure he is a DP over the remaining length of this contract. In the past, Burki’s DP designation has been a hot topic, as conventional wisdom has said that tying up a premium roster spot with your goalkeeper isn’t the ideal way to build a successful roster in MLS, with attackers and impactful midfielders coming at such a premium. That was compounded by Bürki’s slumping form throughout the first stretch of this season, even as assists vs FC Tulsa and Colorado proved there was added value in how he can be used to add value in Yoann Damet’s attacking principles.
However, that slumping form has given way to a rise since CITY SC’s away win vs the Chicago Fire. Since then, Bürki has been the 3rd best shotstopper in MLS according to ASA’s data, and has only trailed Portland’s James Pantemis in total goals added value – a value that does typically penalize short passes in the defensive 3rd.
Bürki simply has to be one of the best shotstoppers and ball movers in MLS to justify his contract designation, and he has to keep pushing his play up a notch. If his numbers are living up to his importance as the captain, then the debate can center around the idea of a DP goalie vs counting down the days until CITY SC can reinvest the DP spot.
Previewing Houston:
St. Louis can now focus on the most important match in club history since the last time they played Houston in the Concacaf Champions Cup. CITY SC were able to rest some key legs, leaving Marcel Hartel at home as he recovered from the illness that has been making its way through the squad, while largely resting Eduard Löwen, Daniel Edelman, Sergio Córdova, and Tomas Totland. This is in contrast to Houston’s 1-0 win over a 10-man Vancouver, where Ben Olsen leaned on his usual Starting XI for over 80 minutes. Héctor Herrera will most likely rotate into the starting lineup on Tuesday, but the Dynamo’s stars – Guilherme, Ponce, McGlynn, Bogusz – all suited up on Saturday with Olsen instead rotating during the 3-0 loss to RSL last Wednesday.
Will that have an impact?
It’s a shorter turnaround than usual, less than 72 hours between the end of Saturday’s matches and Tuesday’s 7 PM start, but now is the time to empty the tanks with just one final weekend before the World Cup break.
The squads are tied 3-2-3 in the all-time series, with the Dynamo becoming the 2nd most played opponent behind Sporting Kansas City thanks to that CCC series back in 2024. CITY SC lost both matches last season, but there are not many similarities for either squad ahead of this year’s meeting.
The Dynamo have usually lined up in a 3-4-3 this season, compared to the 4-2-3-1 formation that faced St. Louis last season.
Some other numbers to consider, the Dynamo are 2-0-4 away from Houston this season, but – like St. Louis – have been hot since their USOC win over Louisville City, going 3-0-1 with the squad’s only loss coming in the midweek 3-0 loss to RSL.
Houston – like LAFC – will try to exploit St. Louis in transition, while defending well in a compact block of their own. The Dynamo’s underlying numbers actually see them 23rd in expected points this season but spectacular finishing from Guilherme and Jack McGlynn’s ability to send in rockets from the midfield has the Dynamo 6th in the West and 10th in the overall table.
The winner at Energizer Park on Tuesday night will either travel to Colorado or host San Jose the week of September 15th and 16th, with the winner of that matchup heading to the Eastern Conference’s representative on October 21st.
