Trinity Rodman: A canary in the NWSL coal mine? and a NWSL Semifinal recap.

Another week, another round of potentially earth shattering news for the NWSL. Ahead of Saturday’s semifinal, it was reported that Rodman’s contract negotiations had hit a snag. Tom Bogert and Meg Linehan further illuminated the situation, reporting that Rodman’s team was negotiating with the league since her contract demands are not possible under NWSL’s current contract structure.  

To make matters worse, Rodman has suitors – specifically three WSL clubs – despite her publicly stated desire to remain in DC. 

The Spirit can’t compete with those top end offers. The league should know this after losing Emily Fox, Kerolin, Naomi Girma, and Alyssa Thompson to the WSL in recent history, and two-time MVP Sam Kerr before them. It isn’t a case of NWSL clubs unsuccessfully lobbying players to stay; it’s a case of NWSL clubs systemically unable to compete with offers from top European clubs. 

WSL does have the advantage of cultural relevance of shared history with their men’s counterparts, but if all things were equal, the NWSL offers competition that no other league in the world can compete with week after week. 

To commissioner Jessica Berman, that parity is worth keeping even if it means the league loses its top Americans year after year, according to an interview with Pardeep Cattry this weekend. 

“I think there's so many compelling reasons for a top player in the world to want to play in the NWSL," Berman said. “"First, that any team can win any game. If you are a player who likes to be tested, who wants to be pushed to be your best on and off the field, to prepare you, in some cases, for top level international competition where you're not only playing against some of the best players in the world week over week, every single game, but also that you're playing in front of full stadiums consistently. That is the environment that you have when you're playing in World Cups and Olympics and we replicate that every single week, not just when the two top teams in a league are playing each other, and I think that really matters. I think it matters for the maturity of a player, for the professionalism of a player, to be able to know in their minds that they can compete in those kinds of circumstances and that they can thrive under that kind of consistent pressure so we think that's super important.”

That’s all well and good – even if one look at the Lionesses or Spain’s World Cup win show that players can have cultural relevance and international success without the NWSL – but if the salary cap means that players aren’t offered salaries competitive with the top leagues in the world, then your salary cap is more effective at driving down player salaries than instituting parity. 

There are plenty of Salary Cap abolitionists around, but all that the league needs to do is revisit its current cap escalators to ensure that its clubs are equipped to make a competitive offer. 

In the most recent CBA, the league agreed to escalate the cap to $5.1 million by 2030. However, in a world where Atlanta is committing $350 million – $200 million expansion bid + facility commitments – it seems pedantic to be arguing over a cap that could easily be raised to keep one league’s best, and most marketable, players. The CBA even gives the league latitude to explore amending the cap before 2030. 

“NWSL may in its discretion, after consultation with the NWSLPA, reduce or eliminate the Salary Cap charge against the Team Salary Cap for certain roster classifications.” (Section 8.16)

If the league were to increase that to $7 million or even $10 million, then spending $1-3 million on your star player wouldn’t completely handicap a club’s competitive window. 

The league will generally be fine as long as the NCAA continues to be the best developmental league in the world, but it risks following the trend of South American soccer following the increase of Premier League rights fees that upended the global soccer market at the turn of the century. Brazil still has a fantastic league, filled with talented players, but the top clubs are rarely able to hold on to their stars when European giants come calling. 

The league doesn’t seem to grasp the implications of Rodman leaving on a free transfer. Arsenal, Chelsea, London City, and Manchester City have all committed resources to their women’s teams that can compete above any NWSL team. That doesn’t guarantee higher quality of play – especially with 6 or 7 clubs globally able to compete financially – but it does mean that the league will continuously take the PR hit as top stars leave for a better financial picture. 

"The league is doing everything we can to keep Trinity in the NWSL.” An NWSL spokesperson told ESPN’s Jeff Kassouf. “She's an excellent player and an important part of our league."

It’s in the league’s hands now; what happens next could permanently influence the league’s trajectory. Berman can pitch American Exceptionalism all that she wants, but the nebulous idea of cultural relevance isn’t putting money in players’ pockets; it’s only digging a deeper hole. 

A KC Current restructure

The fallout to KC’s shock first round exit continued this week when Vlatko Andonovski announced that he would be resigning as KC Current manager to focus on his duties as Sporting Director. The move is only shocking in its timing. There aren’t very many left in the dual Sporting Director/Manager role, and with the NWSL committing to NWSL 2, it was only a matter of time before Andonovski permanently moved upstairs. 

The real shock came with the subsequent announcement that GM Caitlin Carducci was replaced by Director of Soccer Operations and former Racing Louisville GM, Ryan Dell.  

Andonovski’s role was described by the club as their “Global Sporting Director”, meaning that Andonovski will likely have a role in KC sister club HB Køge, as well as overseeing the development of KC Current 2.

There are some uncertainties in KC’s future now.

Who the club announces as the next manager will be crucial, and KC fans are right to be anxious. Andonovski assistant Freya Coombe is the obvious frontrunner, but how much of her stints at Gotham and Angel City were marred by her management vs roster construction? And how much input will Dell have compared to Carducci? 

That latter point is worth looking into.

Sources have said that Andonovski has had the final say since signing in KC last season, but there was a clear shift between the resignation of Camille Ashton and the appointment of Carducci as interim GM. The Current shifted from a haphazard “sign the best players available” approach to a system that found answers for the Current’s needs. That summer, the Current signed Almuth Schult to address their need for a world-class keeper, and signed Kayla Sharples and Alana Cook to strengthen the backline. 

There isn’t a move that the Current have made over the past year and a half that hasn’t moved the Current forward, and while Chawinga and Bia were signed during the transfer of responsibilities from Ashton to Andonovski, it’s worth wondering if Carducci was simply the right person to execute Andonovski’s vision.

Now, perhaps Dell’s shortfalls are highlighted when he is the one creating the plan – Louisville trading Jaelin Howell and $50,000 for Bethany Balcer at the 2024 trade deadline, for instance – but file that worry away for later down the line. 

KC is in a good spot to make this transition. They executed some important extensions throughout last season, and with Kristen Hamilton’s retirement, they aren’t left with many tough decisions. Hailie Mace has already announced that she won’t re-sign, leaving KC with just 6 UFAs and Laurel Ivory’s mutual option. 

Regan Steigleder, Bailey Feist, and Rocky Rodrígues are veteran depth options that KC will want to keep, while Katie Scott and Mary Long are almost certainly returning with new extensions. 

That leaves one name: Bia. 

The striker has been one of the most effective players in the NWSL over the past two seasons and has great chemistry with Chawinga, Cooper, and Debinha. Bia isn’t a perfect fit to Andonovski’s system, but what the attack loses in transition, Bia makes up for in her hold-up play and ability as the second line of attack. 

The problem: KC might need some salary cap maneuvering with Vanessa DiBernardo and Alana Cook offering cap relief this season. 

Still, the Current will bring back a roster that should be the pre-season favorites next season; it’s a job that will have plenty of suitors regardless of whether Bia re-signs. 

Houston Dash aren’t selling.

A short update to the story, a few months back, that the Houston Dash were on the verge of being acquired by Richard Hsiao. Shockingly… that has fallen through. 

Welcome to the NWSL Atlanta. 

The NWSL announced its 17th member last week in Arthur Blank’s Atlanta NWSL project. 

Blank is known as an ambitious owner across his sports portfolio, and his group’s NWSL bid is no different. Blank has committed $200 million to the NWSL’s ever-rising expansion fee with an additional $150 million commitment to facilities and sporting operations. That’s a big number to bring professional women’s soccer back to one of the country’s best soccer markets. 

Blank’s investment in American soccer has been a boon for both US Soccer and MLS, and his involvement with the NWSL should be welcome as the league looks to add increasingly ambitious ownership groups. 

Atlanta will debut in 2028 and play in Mercedes-Benz Stadium with reduced capacity. 

That’s the only downside. 

While MBS has provided a great atmosphere for Atlanta United, the NWSL club would be the third tenet in Blank’s portfolio. Furthermore, while the turf field means an easier turnover than what the Wave deals with at Snapdragon, turf offers unique disadvantages for female athletes. 

Studies have found a correlation between injury rates in women soccer players and playing on artificial turf, saying, “female soccer players had a significantly higher risk of ACL injury when playing games on [Artificial Turf] versus [Natural Grass], whereas no significant difference was seen in male players. No differences were found for the combined male/female cohort or for soccer games or training sessions played on AT compared with NG.”

Jessica Berman admitted that the league is looking into it, but what does that mean? If their league funded study comes back with the same results, will the league encourage Atlanta – and Seattle, and Portland – to build their own woso specific stadiums?

Those questions shouldn’t derail the expansion process, but it should be another aspect of player safety that the league should take seriously.

Alright, on to the semifinals: 

Washington Spirit 2 - 0 Portland Thorns

Rowdy Audi lived up to its name this weekend as DC hosted Portland. The Thorns were out of their depths early and often against the Spirit’s press, and were never able to unlock what they needed through the midfield.

The Spirit dominated the Thorns in every phase of play through the first 45 minutes. Still, it was only rewarded with a 1-0 scoreline after Gift Monday hustled to join Rose Kouassi in the attack, forcing a two-on-one in transition. 

The Spirit couldn’t pass through DC’s press, and when they did penetrate in possession, DC quickly exploited those numbers on the counterattack.

Mac Arnold had to stand tall to keep the Thorns within striking distance. The keeper faced 3.67 expected goals on target on 3.11 expected goals, and even in the efforts she didn’t save, there isn’t much blame to cast her way. 

Croix Bethune ran the show all afternoon, created four chances on her own, and jumped on Obaze’s late match backpass to Arnold that didn’t have nearly enough momentum. 

The Spirit did all of this without Trinity Rodman until the 89th minute, leaving DC faithful with one last chance to cheer for Rodman, with her future looking hazy at best. 

Portland’s 10 shot attempts were all “poor”, only adding up to 0.31 expected goals against DC’s effervescent attack. 

The Spirit will need this attack if they are to score on Gotham for the first time this season. Across all comps, the two clubs faced each other three times, with their last two matches resulting in scoreless draws. 

Rodman’s health may prove important, but Gotham is buzzing in a way that should worry Juan Carlos Amoros. 

Orlando Pride 0 - 1 Gotham FC

Meanwhile, in Orlando, the Cardiac Bats struck again. 

Seb Hines answered Gotham’s “star power” with a game plan that surrounded the Gotham attack and took away outlets into the wide spaces. The structure was solid, generated enough of an attack to win with 1.15 expected goals, and kept Gotham to just a single shot on target.

…about that. 

Like her counterpart in Orlando’s goal, Ann Katrin-Berger didn’t have much work to do over the course of 90 minutes, but her big saves bookended Gotham’s win. A huge save stopped Ovalle’s great shot attempt in the 5th, and a diving effort at the death stopped Orlando from pushing into extra time. 

Gotham had one shot from open play and marched into stoppage time without a shot on target. A tough foul allowed Rose Lavelle and Jayden Shaw to stand over the ball. Shaw’s effort, lashed through the mixer into the far bottom corner, was all that Gotham needed to book their tickets to San Jose.

Two weeks in a row, Gotham has hit the road to steal a result. 

Last week in KC, it was a 120th-minute free kick after KC wasted their opportunities to grab a lead. This week in Orlando, it was a 96th-minute free kick that gave Orlando their first-ever playoff loss at home. 

Now, Amorós’s side will hope that they can stave off DC defeat for the fourth time this season. He’ll feel confident in the play of Shaw, Lavelle, and Howell in the midfield, but it’s a different Spirit than they faced earlier this season.