Trades, Champions Cup Fallout, and Playoff Implications. | Talkin' NWSL

The NWSL is entering crunch time with just four match days left in the season. No one wants to lockdown the final playoff spots anymore, but there are three clear front runners in KC Current, Washington Spirit, and Gotham FC.

Outside of the big three, the picture is as muddy as the Missouri River.

Someone has to take charge.

The KC Current’s rotation following NWSL Shield.

Vlatko Andonovski has taken on an interesting balancing act with four matches left in the NWSL season and nothing to really play for with the Shield tightly wrapped. It’s a dilemma that every manager would love to have, but how will Andonovski balance the rotation of young future contributors with the need to stay sharp ahead of a playoff run that has to end in an NWSL title?  

Andonovski began to sow those seeds in KC’s 4-1 win over the Chicago Stars last weekend. The starting XI featured an important sub in Bailey Feist as well as Katie Scott, making her first start of the season after spending a month on loan in Louisville earlier this summer. 

Then, up 2-1 in the 63rd minute: Reagan Steiglander, Alex Pfeiffer, and Mary Long came on for Bia, Gabby Robinson, and Michelle Cooper.

The lead wasn’t a guarantee at that point, but the play of Long and Pfeiffer showed that KC can rely on their youth if they have to make some tough decisions this offseason. Mary Long assisted Temwa Chawinga’s goal after she dropped into space and shuttled a pass up to Chawinga, who then proceeded to score one of the more ridiculous goals you’ll see against an NWSL backline. 

Then, in the dying embers, Pfeiffer teed up Taylor Malham 1v1 and earned a PK as the 17-year-old attacker put the NWSL veteran defender on skates. Pfeiffer showed these glimpses as a 16-year-old before missing over a year of action with a torn ACL, and has clearly not missed a step. 

Andonovski knows that he has options now, that he can afford to rest key players, but he also has to keep everyone sharp in anticipation of the tough playoff battles ahead. 

A good problem to have. 

An interesting trend in the Spirit’s scoreless midweek draw. 

The Washington Spirit have been on a great run over the past month, and while a lot of that success comes down to Adrián González utilizing Trinity Rodman down the right flank, the success also stems from their depth. This week’s Concacaf Champions Cup highlighted how deep the Spirit have become as they faced off with familiar foe, and recovering super team, Gotham FC. 

The match itself was a stalemate draw, both club’s neutralized each other’s strengths, and the match ended without a big chance generated by other side and just seven shots on target all together. 

Both sides were rotated from their wins this weekend, with both starting keepers on the bench next to Rose Kouassi and Trinity Rodman. Juan Carlos Ámaros opted to bring on Jaedyn Shaw, Bruninha, Sonnett, Lavelle, and Purce to answer González’s subs of Esme Morgan, Rebeca Bernal, Leicy Santos, and Croix Bethune. 

Even with the big guns influencing the match, neither was able to pull away in Philadelphia. 

It was probably the most important group stage match of the competition’s short history and the chess match on display was fitting. The Spirit found it hard to isolate themselves in transition, and while they found themselves on the ball in dangerous moments, Gotham were able to surround the ball with more bodies. 

It also tracks that in matches where the Spirit have been held scoreless under González – away at KC, away at Gotham x2, away at San Diego – opposition has also neutered its attack to limit transition opportunities.

DC has yet to lose since Gozález took the helm. 

Gotham remains unbeaten in ten matches.

The bats are attempting to consolidate their hold on third place without sacrificing their hold on the top spot of Group B in Concacaf. They’re surging at the right time, but success this season will come down to their ability to beat the Spirit in a potential Playoff Semifinal. 

So far so good. Gotham beat the Spirit in DC this April before drawing Washington 0-0 in back to back meetings. 

It’s a different Spirit squad than the one Gotham beat earlier this season, but so are the Bats. 

Rose Lavelle is in the form of her life, while Jaedyn Shaw and Midge Purce are also quickly finding chemistry. 

Now, it’s finding a way to create without opening the space for DC to create in transition. It’s the mindset that has led to back to back scoreless draws against their nearest rivals, but one that hasn’t led to an outright win. 

Of course, that hasn’t included the full roster. Only Temwa Chawinga and Emma Sears have generated more g+ since the start of Gotham’s unbeaten run, while Gotham only trails the current in expected goal differential after over performing their underlying stats throughout most of the season. 

Heading into the weekend, Gotham will be confident knowing they’ve advanced to the CCC semifinal next spring without exhausting their rotation. A win vs Seattle could set them up by only needing a result vs Kansas City to clinch a top 4 finish. 

It’s all coming into view. 

Laura Harvey’s match-winning adjustments.

While Gotham’s underlying stats have finally caught up to their results in recent weeks, Laura Harvey’s Seattle Reign have become the Joker. Charging into fourth place while possessing the league’s worst expected goal differential over the past ten matches. They’ve allowed the third most xG against, and the second least amount of xG for… It’s been poor. Yet, the Reign’s late match winner vs North Carolina was their eleventh point at home from their last five matches, and a home playoff match could produce even more magic.

So, what is happening?

For starters, Jess Fishlock, Jordyn Bugg, and Emeri Adames all occupy spots in the top ten of over performing xG, meaning that Seattle is often scoring on unexpected opportunities. No team has done more with less, and while that doesn’t lead to an expectation of playoff success, Laura Harvey has made some interesting tweaks in close matches. 

Last weekend vs North Carolina, Harvey pushed Maddie Dahlien high into the attack, hoping the midfield could find opportunities to send her into the attack alone in transition. It worked to great success over the second half, nearly grabbing a brace if not for a tight offside call. 

There have been missteps.

When overpowered in Kansas City, the Reign could not find a way to generate attacking chances. Vlatko Anodonovski’s side pinned the Reign into their own half, forcing Seattle’s average possession starting point deeper and deeper as they struggled playing through any sort of press.

However, does that matter if they finish the season with two of their four final matches at home vs Bay FC and Utah? Will any of the clubs chasing them for the final home playoff spot have a better stretch over the final four? 

Harvey has to be feeling confident.

Orlando Pride are at a crossroads.

It might be time to panic in Orlando. 

The Pride are winless in NWSL play over the last ten matches and now face a must win against Pachuca after losing to Club América with a fairly strong roster midweek. No one in the NWSL has a worse goal differential over this ten match stretch, but the win in San Diego offered a lifeline. 

While Orlando’s numbers have been bad, their expected goal differential is just -0.21 in this ten match stretch, much more fitting of a championship side missing their talismanic goalscorer. In San Diego, that meant absorbing what the Wave threw at them down the left, switching quickly to the right, and exploiting the space to find an attacker across the middle.

That’s how Jacquie Ovalle opened her NWSL account, and that’s how Carson Pickett scored the match winner. 

Finding those moments meant an adjustment from the key chances that landed at the feet of Barbra Banda over the past two seasons, but it wasn’t a gameplan that Seb Hines could exploit on the road in Mexico City. 

The Pride are still a playoff team, and they’ve been unlucky, but they aren’t in the clear. A string of bad results could see them fall out of the playoff spots; they can’t waste an opportunity against a Houston Dash squad that was thoroughly dismantled in DC last weekend.

Portland deal Suguita to ACFC after contract talks stalled.

Portland is teetering on precarious ground this season, but after contract talks stalled with Hina Sugita, they made a bold move. The trade sees Sugita head to Angel City in exchange for M.A. Vignola and $600,000 of intra-league transfer funds. 

On one hand, the loss of Sugita will hurts longtime Thorns supporters, and it is maybe a troubling sign with Portland and Sugita coming to vastly different valuations. 

However, in light of an inability to come to terms, the Thorns turned that into a good NWSL fullback and $600,000 in funds is a great consolation prize. Ally Sentnor arrived in KC for the exact same sum, Portland also adding a player that can contribute right away is an outright steal. 

Vignola is versatile, can play up and down the touchline but boasts defensive stats that should pique the interest of Thorns fans going forward. There is a world where Portland actually improves from this trade – Vignola and Sugita have similar g+ numbers this season – but it does leave a gaping hole in the attack for Rob Gale to navigate in their playoff push. 

Can San Diego survive?

The Wave has been on a slide.

Jonas Eidevall’s side is winless in six and has scored just two goals over that stretch. The Wave has watched as their formation transformed from purposefully chaotic to deeply unstructured. The play of Kenza Dali and Adrian Leon has cooled while their crew of young players have hit the typical inconsistencies you would expect from a group in the throws of their longest season. 

The Wave have a tough run-in, away to the Spirit and a much improved Utah before a final match at home vs Chicago and their season finale in Kansas City. They haven’t scored more than two goals against a playoff team since April; they have to find a way forward. 

Louisville turned right side up after win vs LA. Can they keep this going?

How Racing finishes the season is anyone’s guess, but, for now, they’re holding down the final playoff spot with 12 points remaining. 

It all rests on Louisville heading into Cary, North Carolina and accomplishing a club first. Bev Yanez’s club has only lost in North Carolina, but this six pointer is their best chance at gaining separation from the pack. 

If they’re going to do it, it’ll be at the feet of Emma Sears. 

Over the past ten matches, only Temwa Chawinga has generated more than Sears’s 1.33 goals added.

Against the Courage, that could be all that they need. 

Can the Courage bounce back?

The loss in Seattle was a wasted opportunity for the Courage, especially as they outplayed the Reign in the midfield. It was a tough bounce on the other end of back to back wins, but there are reasons to believe that the Courage can still make the playoffs despite hosting both Gotham and Washington. 

On paper, the Courage have been a top five team this season, but need more production from their attack. It was a problem before they dealt Shaw to Gotham, and it’s only more dire in her absence. 

If the Courage are going to pull off a late season surge, it will be because of the excellent season from Manaka Matsukubo but their recent slump is driven by Matsukubo’s slight dip in form. She has been a negative influence over the past ten matches in both her shot selection and decisions on when to dribble into dangerous areas.

If the Courage can right Manaka’s play, then they’ll be a playoff team, but until then, they’ll need Ashley Sanchez to take on even more of the load. 

Dash acquires Ricketts, what does it mean?

The other big trade this week saw young midfielder Chloe Ricketts head to Houston while signing a pre-contract in Boston with the new expansion team. It’s an interesting deal in that Houston shouldn’t really be in the business of acquiring a young, inconsistent midfielder for four matches but it may be as simple as recent injuries forcing them to do something. 

In an alternate world, Ricketts might actually be the perfect player for Fabrice Gautrat’s midfield, a hard nosed chaotic young midfielder, but it’s hard to see a scenario where she positively affects the Dash late season push. 

ACFC’s playoff bound after Suguita acquisition?

Angel City put some of the Alyssa Thompson money to good use this week when they acquired Hina Sugita. Was it an overpay, probably, but does it matter?

Long term, of course, it seems like ACFC should’ve been able to drive a harder bargain given the circumstances and precedent for intra-league deals, but ACFC is of one mind. Make the playoffs.

It’ll be tough, ACFC have just one win in their last five, and two in their last ten, but Sugita adds a competent threat that can help ACFC build in possesion. They host KC, Houston, and Portland before finishing the season in Chicago. It’s a doable run-in, but Sugita will have to hit the ground running playing alongside international teammates Jun Endo and Miyabi Moriya.

Alexander Straus will be sure to like the level of control that Sugita can influence over a match, and at 28, should be able to play that role in LA for years to come. 

This is a rare trade where it should work out well for both sides, but the loss vs Louisville last weekend may have ended the hopes of a late push through Sugita. 

Utah has dropped just 2 points in their last 5.

The Utah Royals are playing defense again, and it’s a problem for clubs hoping for a free space as they chase positioning. It’s been a long time coming, but a club that looked lost earlier this season is now playing with purpose after selling their promising young star. 

That’s not the lesson to take away from their run of form but it does speak to the potential successes of a team completely bought into a manager’s message. 

The Royals have outscored opponents 10-4 over this stretch and have been the third best team in the league. Mina Tanaka has been great, and they’re finding good Fullback play in Janni Thomsen and Maddi Pogarch. 

Maybe it should have been that simple all year. 

Bay FC is in bad shape.

Bay is winless in 11 and lost 0-2 to Utah last weekend. They’re moving on from Albertin Montoya in the offseason as key members of their front office are leaving. It’s already time to commit to a change in culture. The decision to bring in Montoya as a key builder has backfired, despite his lengthy list of youth connections and the cloud of the offseason’s failed investigation hangs like a never ending rain cloud over the organization. 

They could be eliminated from the playoff picture this weekend. 

Chicago has a long way to reach the Current’s level.

The Stars ran headfirst into the Kansas City Current last weekend, who had rotated some key positions with the NWSL Shield already wrapped up. 

They fumbled the opportunity and were thoroughly outplayed, even as the Current handed the attack to their young goal scorers. 

The Stars have a few things going for them. Sam Staab has been a revelation, as has Ludmilla. However, with Alyssa Naeher walking towards retirement, there’s a laundry list of positions they need to improve at to compete with the best of the league. Mal Swanson fixes a lot of those issues, but three out of the four positions along the backline have to be upgraded at the very least.