The storylines driving MLS Decision Day

MLS Decision Day is finally upon us. 

The Union have already secured the regular season’s biggest prize, their 2nd Supporters Shield victory, but there is still plenty worth fighting for on the final day of the season. 

It’s not quite NWSL levels of choose your own adventure, but there’s still movement on the table. In the East, Nashville can finish anywhere from 4th to 8th, while in the West, 11th-place San Jose is still capable of winning its way into the final play-in spot. 

So, let’s get into the best storylines ahead of the regular season closer. 

The fight for first in the West.

Vancouver received a boost this week as LAFC played two important matches during the international window. They fared about as well as expected without both Son and Denis Bouanga, but failed to hold Austin at bay on Sunday Night Soccer.

Unfortunately, the league has yet to adjust to its increased stature. Playing through international breaks was a headache a decade ago, but it’s crippling as crucially important international players have entered the league over the past few seasons. There’s a conversation worth having around the league’s inability to move at even a moderate pace when it comes to quality of life changes – but with the disruption of next summer’s World Cup, there is time to make a big leap.

Until then, Angelenos will have to accept the result and rue the many opportunities to grab points earlier this season. 

LAFC’s loss is San Diego’s gain as they remain the only club that could still replicate St. Louis CITY SC’s success from their inaugural season and finish atop the conference. It would be a fantastic accomplishment for a squad that has had to deal with adversity following the loss of Milan Iloski. It seemed, for a moment, that the bloom had fallen off of San Diego’s rose, but Mikey Varas had other plans. San Diego rebounded to a 4-2-2 record following the Leagues Cup, but it hasn’t been enough to hold off Vancouver from retaking the top spot. 

Jesper Sørensen has pulled the right strings since the arrival of Thomas Müller, and his Whitecaps look poised to take care of business on decision day.

Of course, in MLS, nothing is ever that straightforward.

Dallas is a tricky matchup for the top seed and a potential first-round opponent if they can hold on to the 8th seed and win their play-in matchup. Petar Musa has been incredible lately, scoring 7 goals in Dallas’s last 10, and is trending towards playoff spoiler status. 

However, it’s been smooth sailing in Vancouver since the addition of Müller, no club has a higher expected goals differential since.

It’s a cold stat. Emphasizing Müller’s ability to not just interpret space for himself to operate in behind the first line of attack, but also create space for others, as opposing backlines can’t just key in on the front three. 

The Whitecaps will clinch the top seed with a win or draw, and can still clinch with a loss if San Diego drops points in Portland.  

Can RSL hold out for the final play-in spot?

Salt Lake will visit St. Louis with everything to play for on the final night of the season. RSL is holding on to the final play-in spot, but it’s tenuous. RSL haven’t won away from *dubious sponsor* Stadium since before the Leagues Cup break and will have to reverse that trend without Alexandros Katranis, who will be suspended after picking up a yellow card in the 71st minute in Seattle last weekend. They’ll need a great performance from a refreshed Diego Luna to get past a St. Louis squad that has been significantly improved over the past month, but they can still hold on with a loss. 

The Rocky Mountain Cup win earlier this month may be the result that clinches their play-in appearance, but it isn’t guaranteed when the Rapids host LAFC and San Jose host Austin. 

All three have been treading water. Colorado hasn’t found a rhythm since losing Djordje Mikhailavic to Toronto. Paxton Aaronson has had great moments, but losses at LA Galaxy, Sporting Kansas City, FC Dallas, and RSL have doomed their season. 

Meanwhile, San Jose has been slowly sinking since their US Open Cup loss to Austin in July, losing 8 of 12, while only Sporting Kansas City, DC United, and Atlanta have won fewer points over that span.

It’s been rough, and while they’ve been unlucky in some ways, the goals they were scoring in bunches earlier in the season have dried up, even as their defensive record has slightly improved. Only Chicho Arango and Preston Judd have generated over 0.50 goals added – a stat that measures general impact – during that time. Arango’s impact ranks just ahead of St. Louis CITY SC winger Brendan McSorley, with over 900 more minutes during that time.

RSL hasn’t fared much better with CB Justen Glad leading RSL with 0.54 goals added since July, while Colorado has had standout play from both Rafael Navarro and Aaronson, but they’re facing the toughest competition on Decision Day. 

Who are you siding with?

Nashville can still win home pitch advantage for round one… they could also drop into the play-in match.

Nashville’s post-season outlook is teetering on a knife-edge. The Coyotes will be happy with their first-ever piece of silverware after taking home the US Open Cup earlier this year, but it’s been an uphill climb in recent months. BJ Callaghan’s work in turning around Nashville’s outlook has to be lauded, but something has been missing since the Leagues Cup break. 

Away from Geodis, Nashville has lost to St. Louis, NYCFC, Cincinnati, Orlando, and drawn at Montrèal while losing 0-1 to Atlanta at home. They’ve allowed themselves to fall into a situation where, despite heavy scorelines like the 7-2 win over Chicago earlier this season, 

The playoff outlook will be entirely dependent on how they manage Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami – more on that in a second. Hany Muhktar and Sam Surridge have been the key to Nashville’s success this season, along with Andy Nahar providing the width, but when Nahar and the other wide players can’t create out wide, then Nashville has struggled.

Whether Nashville can clinch home pitch advantage for the first round will depend on how the supporting cast provides for Mukhtar and Surridge to continue what they do best. 

Against Miami, there will be plenty of space to operate.

A win could see them jump all up into 4th, but a loss could see them fall into the play-in spots; anything can happen. 

Lionel Messi’s iron grip.

Lionel Messi’s 2024 MVP campaign was close; the case for Riqui Puig and Christian Benteke, among others, coupled with Messi missing a chunk of the season, and the vote wasn’t unanimous.

His 2025 campaign has left no doubt: one last ride with his friends from Barçelona.

Messi leads Denis Bouanga (24) and Sam Surridge (23) with 26 goals in 27 appearances, and trails Anders Dreyer in assists, 15 to 16, heading into Decision Day. 14 goal contributions over the last 8 matches, Messi is starting to run away with the Golden Boot and has 8 more goal contributions than the 2nd best Dreyer – it’s been a historic season. Messi’s goals added (14.29) are almost double Denis Bouanga’s g+ (7.31), but it’s even more impressive historically. 

It’s not a perfect analog, but according to ASA’s database, which tracks the stat back to 2013, Denis Bouanga has had the 7th most impactful season of the past 13 seasons. It’s an accomplishment that only adds gravity to Messi’s historic season. No one has come close to his impact, not Riqui Puig last season, not Robbie Keane in 2014, not even Carlos Vela and Zlatan in 2019. 

It’s fitting that one of the greatest players ever to step foot on a pitch has rewritten what it means to be great in Major League Soccer.

One of one.

Well, except Messi still can’t touch Carlos Vela’s 49 goal contributions from that wild 2019 season.

One of two.

Wooden Spoon on the line in Atlanta.

The streets are calling the matchup between DC United and Atlanta United on Saturday “el crapico”, and it’s bound to be a beautiful trainwreck. 

The spoon is a dubious honor, but significantly, Atlanta United find themselves in this situation after splashing cash in the transfer market last winter, while DC has been trending in this direction for a while now. They’ve missed the playoffs every season since the MLS Is Back Tournament and could take home their 2nd Spoon in the past 4 seasons. 

The irony is that, unlike in previous seasons, neither side has been the worst analytically this year. On expected points, Atlanta sits 9th in the West and DC 12th, but that would have required expected finishing – neither side could find the back of the net this season.

Both clubs rank last in Goal Differential minus Expected Goals Differential (GD-xGD): Atlanta with -24.10 and DC with -22.88. 

Both sides have failed to finish and defend as expected, hard to hear after Atlanta spent over €30 million on Emmanuel Latte Lath and Miggy Almiron. Latte Latte fetched a league record fee at the time and has turned in just 7 goals and an assist in over 2100 minutes. Ronny Deila’s return to MLS has not worked out; they haven’t figured out their goalkeeping, and they’re coming into Decision Day on a 3-match shutout streak. 

Attempting to award Atlanta the league’s most expensive Wooden Spoon will be an equally gunshy DC United. 

DCU lost 6 straight through the middle of the season in the midst of a 12-match winless streak and allowed 3 or more goals 8 times – losing to the Shield-winning Union 10-0 on aggregate this season. Luckily for DC fans, new Sporting Director Erkut Sogut has big plans for René Weiler’s squad next season. Good thing he has plenty of experience to turn this ship around… what’s that? He’s never worked in a soccer club before? 

These two sleepwalked their way through a scoreless draw in July; watch at your own peril.