St. Louis CITY SC's recent form "impacted by fatigue" ahead of Decision Day.

St. Louis CITY SC has officially hit the skid. 

Saturday’s 0-1 loss to San Diego was certainly spooky. 

Yoann Damet’s side wanted to end the home stand on a high note. St. Louis returned to what has been its best starting XI at times this season with the obvious caveat of Roman Bürki’s absence affecting the team’s ability to distribute balls in behind. That weakness and the hesitancy to recycle through Ben Lundt aside, CITY SC played well enough to deliver a bounce-back performance… it wasn’t in the cards.

Nothing tells the story better than the efforts on target. San Diego generated a single shot on target through the first 45 minutes, but it was that shot – a long range chip over Ben Lundt – that made the difference.

The goal is only possible because CITY SC pinched into the attack following a recollected corner kick. Moments earlier, Pablo Sisniega scrambled across the goal mouth to stop Tomas Totland’s shot at the back post. The corner routine didn’t generate a shot on target but as Chris Durkin stepped up to win the ball, his pass through the middle went right to Ale Alvarado, and Anders Dryer was off to the races. 

St. Louis should have had the lead at that point, and should have created enough to erase a 1 goal deficit but everything went against CITY SC in those crucial scoring moments. 

A shot uncharacteristically lofted right at Sisniega, an errant Navarro shot at the dot with no one around him, a last moment clearance after Sisniega puts just enough of a touch on Simon Becher’s late game chip for Manu Duah to recover and clear it out of danger. 

This loss felt didn’t feel as frustrating as the loss vs Portland a few days prior.

It’s similar, definitely.

The deciding goal comes on the heels of a forced pass in the attacking end and the entire team moving a tad slow on the recovery. That was similar, but CITY SC were rightfully the better team in the run of play. 

“I think tonight, the performance is very positive. I thought on Wednesday, there was definitely more frustration in terms of how we approached the end ever the first half,” Damet said. “We created the situation we are in, being in the playoffs since three weeks ago, which gives us a lot of room for those games that you don't wish and you don't hope happen; but if they do, we need to learn and we have to be ready in three weeks when we start the playoffs.”

Yoann Damet has to hope that rest and recovery now is all a part of the training team’s periodization plans. 

Individual Performances:

It was a rare slow day for star striker Rafael Navarro including a 0.48 xG air ball after Carlo Holse created an incredible chance in front of goal. Navarro has never been the most clinical striker in MLS but it is unusual to see him lose 5 duals and commit 4 fouls while trying to gain position. 

While Navarro’s output was poor compared to his usual output (see the g+ history bars below) and no CITY player had a particularly poor game – depending on how you characterize Lundt’s gaf, the outcome is born out of a lack of sharpness. 

6 shot attempts inside the box were either blocked or off target, and of the 1.94 xG created, only 1.31 xG was generated at Sisniega. 

That was the difference at the end of the day. Sisniega prevented 1.31 goals and Lundt allowed a goal on San Diego’s 0.06 xG on target. 

There was a bright spot in the debut of Riley Lynch on loan from CITY2. Lynch has been training with the first time throughout the season, and offers an attacking option at either LWB or RWB in a way that Rafael Santos and Mykhi Joyner haven’t been capable of this season. Joyner because he’s just, ideally, not a wingback and Santos because he isn’t dynamic enough in the attacking 3rd. 

Lynch was a bit too tentative at times in his 11+ minutes on the pitch but he also made some nice instinctive runs to open things up at the back post.

“He was probably a little bit timid and a little bit anxious to get his first minutes, as you would expect, but at the same time, he also did some interesting things,” Damet said. “He's been training and doing some good things. I thought tonight we need to push a little bit. He's got an interesting attacking profile in terms of 1v1 abilities, in terms of also attacking inside the box.”

Lynch's debut is the 2nd debut in 3 matches after Brunet’s debut vs. RSL, that’s a big positive. 

Another big win off the bench was Tomáš Ostrák. 

Ostrák returned after a tough moment in Salt Lake. A first half red card that created some whispers about his future in light of his uncertain contract status. The Czech midfielder quickly put those thoughts to bed with a nearly 30 minute cameo off the bench where he created a scoring chance and had an opportunity to put CITY SC on the board with an effort at the top of the box. 

“Tomáš was quite hard on himself after the game, so I didn't have to be too hard on him, whether with the performance or the red card,” Damet said. “When you go through that process with the guys, it gives you a good feeling that the next day they are going to show up and try to get better. And when you see that, like the guys are trying to get better every single day, it makes you want to give them another chance, another opportunity, because you don't take things personal.”

It’s also worth touching on Fallou Fall’s play in this one. 

Damet has been flexible in his usage of Fall off the bench but the final look of the night – Fall at LCB, Baumgartl at CB, and Dante Polvara at RCB – should be the starting CB trio in Damet’s full strength XI. There’s something in Lukas MacNaughton’s play that continues to win him the job over Orozco and, by extension, Fall.

Is it that Damet views ball movement and the ability to safely keep possession over pure defending numbers? Is it the relative spacing compared to Fall’s tendency to roam out of position? Probably, but St. Louis have felt more dynamic when Fall shares the backline with Polvara. 

Food for thought.

Shades of 2023?

The #1 topic yelled in my direction over the past 24 hours is that CITY SC’s 4-loss skid feels eerily similar to the 2023 side that cratered into the playoffs.

That’s not entirely true. 

2026 CITY SC’s record will be worse in the final 5 before the playoffs! However, the context is entirely different. This isn’t a full strength St. Louis side coasting off of an early win streak and struggling to find another way to break down opponents. Bradley Carnell’s Western Conference-winning 2023 side was really a bottom 3 side in the Western Conference over those last 5 matches, only generating more expected goals than Austin, San Jose, and Seattle, and only bettering Austin, RSL, and Minnesota’s expected goal differential. 

The team won more points over that stretch than this year’s CITY SC will, but the underlying stats foretold a raging 5-alarm fire against a hot Sporting Kansas City side. 

This year is different.

Yoann Damet’s side are paying the tax for winning a US Open Cup title in the middle of a 7-match stretch spanning just 21 days. The fatigue is noticeable, despite Damet’s attempts to rotate through MNUFC and RSL losses and rest key players. The process is still creating an environment where St. Louis should be grabbing points, possessing a league-leading 4.03 GD-xGD stat over the two matches this past week. 

Yoann Damet was resigned to that reality following the loss to San Diego; his team created the conditions to win, but heavy legs gave berth to a lack of crispness in the attacking 3rd.

“I think there is a little bit of us forcing the play, decision-making for sure gets impacted by the fatigue,” Damet said. “You can tell there's definitely some fatigue in the past few games which makes it more difficult to be consistent. It's one moment this afternoon that cost us that goal, and unfortunately that changes the game at the end.”

It isn’t a given that the crispness will return, but given the track record of Rafael Navarro, Simon Becher (the last 4 months of Simon Becher), and the eventual return of both Mǎțan and Bürki from the injury list, there is evidence that the luck will return to them. 

“I think a lot of guys struggled with the stretch we had, physically and mentally,” Timo Baumgartl said. “To be honest, it was a long stretch of games, with that Open Cup success, but I'm looking forward to next year with the Champions Cup and everything. We need to be ready to do that. So that's the ambition for everyone, for me, for every player to get ready every three days, mentally and physically.”

How many teams lose a match with 71% of the field tilt? How many of those teams have an unprecedented unbeaten streak as proof of the concept?

St. Louis wouldn’t be the first team to sacrifice a playoff run for Open Cup success – just look at Nashville last season – but in the meantime, there is one more dress rehearsal. 

Onto Houston.

St. Louis now knows it’s Decision Day outlook.

After San Jose’s win over RSL, Houston’s loss at Portland, and LAFC’s home loss to the red hot Loons, CITY SC are in 4th place with one final match on the agenda. A win or draw in Houston next week will guarantee home advantage in their first round matchup but a draw or San Jose win will lineup at least 2 more dates with the Houston Dynamo. 

Now, St. Louis has been successful against the Dynamo in 2026 but a 4th, 5th, and even 6th meeting this season could go differently – especially after matching up on the final day of the season. 

Form wise, St. Louis would welcome a jump into 3rd place and a series with a struggling LAFC but the matchup against Houston isn’t a bad one, and the potential conference semifinal matchup with Dallas would be infinitely favorable to a rematch at Vancouver.

Houston have struggled to score goals without conceding on the back end when they do open up. The Dynamo were lifeless without Guilherme and Hector Herrera in the 3-1 loss to Portland. While both should be back next weekend, Houston created 1 shot on target against a Portland side who has not been shy in coughing up scoring opportunities this season.

For St. Louis, that means an opportunity to show that this recent skid was solely the fatigue from a heavy set of fixtures, but faltering against Houston would be grim heading into the international break. 

“I'm looking forward to it to be honest with you,” Damet said. “I think the hard thing, when you play every three days is you don't have time to work. It's a lot of video. It's a lot of giving some ideas but not really like working on them, and I think we've probably suffered a little bit from that. Like you base your feeling going into a game on the previous game and not necessarily on training, and I think that's something we have used to our advantage all season.”

Either way, Decision Day will be full of intrigue, and not just for St. Louis.

Portlands’s win over Houston and MNUFC’s win over LAFC ensured that 6 teams are still eligible for the Western Conference play-in game ahead of round 1.

11th placed RSL can leapfrog the 7th placed Galaxy if they win their matchup in Utah next weekend, while Portland hand delivered a must-win scenario to their arch-rivals Seattle after their win catapulted them into 8th place and knocked the Sounders down to 10th. All while 12th placed Minnesota United could qualify with a win vs San Jose and some help in the Galaxy, LAFC, and FC Dallas winning their final matches of the season. 

Is it a good thing that only 3 teams have been eliminated from the West before Decision Day? I mean… probably not… but it damn sure is fun. 

Isn’t that why we love sport?