On the eve of a monumental transfer deadline, St. Louis CITY SC hosts FC Dallas.
St. Louis CITY SC hosts FC Dallas, a preview as a pivotal transfer looms large.
Sunday marks the final match during the MLS Summer Transfer Window before the September 2nd deadline. It will be a welcome reprieve from the chaos of the past month, the first big window of the new regimes, and the final summer window before the calendar shifts to a point where teams won’t be juggling rebuilding rosters while managing 20% of the season.
Fortunately, that hasn’t seemed to matter to Yoann Damet’s St. Louis CITY SC, who are now 12 straight unbeaten heading into Sunday’s clash with FC Dallas. Over that time, CITY SC have gone 3-1-0 since Marcel Hartel was dealt to Hannover and 1-0-0 with Edu Löwen on his way to San José.
Of course, that isn’t the full story.
Corey Wray has also brought in the likes of Tahir Reid-Brown and Zach Zengue as potential young pieces, along with Alex Mǎțan, Carlo Holse, and the rumors of a big signing before the deadline this week. While the idea of a loan for Southampton's Damian Downs was reported earlier this week, it’s the link to Colorado striker Rafael Navarro that really puts wind in the sails.
Navarro is an ideal fit for how a striker in Yoann Damet’s system should operate.
A hard worker against the ball, great in possession, not afraid to take players on, and – most importantly – a proven MLS goal scorer. Navarro has netted 54 goal contributions in 103 matches over the past 3 seasons, and has already scored 11 for the ‘Pids this season, a potential season high for any CITY SC striker.
It’s about more than the goals, but it’s also very much about the goals, with a reported fee of around $12 million to see this deal over the line.
Braidon Nourse
It’s a big fee, especially in light of Cuypers heading to Monterrey for around $8 million and Dejan Joveljić’s transfer to Seattle this week for around $6 million. Navarro is a more complete player than Joveljić – as much as his goals should be valued higher – and 3 years younger than Cuypers, but it’s still arguably an overpay for what Navarro might have been worth outside of the league or even outside of the conference.
However, once a player is a DP, that fee only matters to an ownership who will have given the go-ahead to Corey Wray to spend $18 million on a fresh pair of DPs while finding landing spots for Marcel Hartel and Eduard Löwen for reduced fees.
It’s a far cry from the bargain that has been Marcel Hartel signing as a free agent in 2024, or even the most recent signing of Alex Mǎțan, but it is a clear sign of ambition for a regime that needed to show fans monetary commitment to the vision. There shouldn’t be worries that Carolyn Kindle and the St. Louis ownership can’t spend head-to-head with the most ambitious Midwest clubs, especially given the investment in Energizer Park and the entire Downtown West training and HQ complex over the past 5-6 years.
However, Lutz Pfannenstiel’s desire to focus on a… forgive me… “Designated Team” vs. spending big on one or two players that could upset the balance of his salary structure bred a concern within the fanbase that the CSO’s ethos was dictated by resources allocated and not personal values.
Assuming the deal is finalized by the deadline, Corey Wray will have signed $18 million worth of DP targets this summer, a big number, even in this new MLS where everyone will be expected to spend. Yoann Damet will suddenly have one of the better strike partnerships in the league between Simon Becher and Navarro, a more formidable look than the previous ways Damet has attempted to unlock his late-match dual striker look. It’s a duo who will have 16 goals between them this season but, more importantly, a duo that will be incredibly hard to play through.
Burgundy Wave
“We're very happy to get the win for him on his last game..." - Reggie Cannon when asked about Rafael Navarro and the rumored move to St. Louis. "We'll miss him very much."
There may still be some moves on the horizon this week (and the Navarro deal is not finished, as he captained Colorado in the derby vs RSL Saturday night), both incoming and outgoing.
Could Wray bring in more help at midfield? And could a player like Fallou Fall be on the move? Fallou is clearly a talented CB, but he hasn’t been able to break into the starting XI with Dante Polvara, Timo Baumgartl, Lukas MacNaughton, and Jaziel Orozco all playing at a high standard, coupled with his designation as a U22 player while MacNaughton and Orozco are both on significantly lower salaries. After the TRB acquisition from Orlando, there is now a glut of LCB candidates – as much as TRB is also going to see looks at wingback. There is something in Fallou Fall’s game; the ranginess that makes him a human highlight reel also takes him out of position at times, something we know Damet values over pure skill.
If the right offer comes, it could be worth exploring, especially with the need to clear some room for CITY2 players like 16-year-old Owen Jorgenson and 2026 SuperDraft pick Zach Lillington to eventually play their way into the first team.
Justin Horneker
Owen Jorgensen is surprisingly close to being MLS ready.
For now, St. Louis continues along the toughest stretch of the 2nd half of the season with the Navarro deal hanging in the air. One match into a five-match swing before the US Open Cup semifinal, where they will play every match against clubs in the top 13 of expected goals differential since the World Cup break.
So far, Yoann Damet’s side are 1-0-0 after the 2-1 win over Houston last weekend, and now, with Carlo Holse potentially (more on that later) ready to start for the first time, CITY SC can end the window in a better place than they started, which seemed nearly impossible at points over the past month.
It will be interesting to watch what this version of St. Louis will look like with a potentially 60-minute fit Carlo Holse and the majority of a starting XI that isn’t coming off of a 3-match week.
“It's always been the point where he could start.” Damet said of Holse’s fitness level this week, “It's a matter of like discussing how everybody feels about him starting, how physically he is, what we see with the plan as well.”
It’s a typical Damet answer: Holse is capable of starting, but whether Damet feels comfortable given the game plan and margin of error is a different story.
Lineup Speculation
There will inherently be some changes from last weekend’s 2-1 win over Houston.
Chris Durkin will return from suspension while Tomáš Ostrák and Palmer Ault will be out after Ostrák’s load management in training this week appears to be a more serious issue with his hamstring, and Ault picked up an ankle injury on Thursday.
So, that means someone new will have to step in on the left side of the attack again after Edu Löwen stepped in for the departing Marcel Hartel, and Ostrák stepped in for the departing Löwen. That could be Mǎțan stepping into a role higher up the pitch, or that could be a surprise in Zach Zengue, one of Holse or Sangbin inverted, or even Miguel Perez, who stepped into that position when Hartel was unavailable all of the way back in St. Louis’s trip to San Diego.
When Ostrák left the match last weekend, Damet moved the chess pieces around to slot Sangbin over to the left side, but really in a sort of 3-3-1-2-1 with Polvara stepping into the midfield and Mátan forming the base of a defensive diamond with the attacking trio. That look was short lived as Ault and MacNaughton came on for Mǎțan and Sangbin, but it’s worth keeping an eye on against an FC Dallas who possess a little more firepower and expansiveness than Houston through this point in the season.
Dallas’s underlying numbers haven’t quite lived up to their top ten attacking numbers before the World Cup, sliding to bottom ten over the last six matches – mostly away – with a slight reprieve during their Leagues Cup run earlier this month. That has led way to an improved defensive stature, but St. Louis has still been seventh and fifth in both expected categories over their last seven matches, closely mirroring their actual results, both a top five expected goals differential and actual goals differential. Dallas’s numbers are more lopsided thanks to the 5-0 drubbing in Vancouver last weekend, a result St. Louis will be leaning on for inspiration after the two sides drew 1-1 at Toyota Stadium earlier this season.
Vancouver unsettled Los Toros with their play out wide, and in transition, for St. Louis, that will mean more big matches from Tomas Totland and Conrad Wallem on the wing. The pair of wingbacks have been vastly improved over the back half of the season, which, in turn, has given St. Louis an element in the attack that was missing earlier this season.
“Confidence and consistency are two things that tie together quite well,” Damet said earlier this week when probed about his wingbacks. “We’ve been able to create a lot of confidence and consistency within this group from having more experiences together and more belief as well in what we can do, so it’s now about how do we find balance and continue to integrate guys through the end of the season.”
On top of success in the wide spaces, St. Louis will also need to continue to trust the defensive work, especially against one of the league’s best strikers in Petar Musa.
Musa has scored three times in this fixture, including the go-ahead goal last season that conceded possession to St. Louis for, well, 42 shot attempts, including a 2nd half where St. Louis outshot Dallas 29 to 1 in the 1-1 draw.
Yoann Damet won’t want to recreate those numbers tonight, a performance that Corey Wray joked about in his opening press conference as proof of CITY SC’s poor luck last season. Musa is 3rd in xG among strikers, trailing only Navarro and Brian White, and leads all strikers in goals with 16 – trailing only Lionel Messi overall. It’ll be another tough ask for Timo Baumgartl’s back line, but one that could lean heavily on the recovery ability of Dante Polvara and Jaziel Orozco.
Orozco had the opportunity to sit down with the media this week after working his way back into the starting XI for the 2nd time this season and 3rd time after he was a surprise favorite of Yoann Damet throughout preseason. It’s clear to see why Damet has valued the 22-year-old CB; he possesses shockingly elite underlying numbers when he is in the lineup. It’s why – coupled with the resurgence of Lukas MacNaughton – Polvara has been a fixture on the left side to the detriment of Fallou Fall.
“I feel great,” Orozco said. “I worked hard to be at this level. I worked hard to stay in and start in a team like this, and I appreciate the coaches for helping me a lot with just seeing the game in a different way, more professional, more consistent.”
You can understand much of what Damet wants from his outside CBs in Orozco’s numbers. As a stay-at-home CB, his interrupting g+ and tackle rate aren’t going to earn him an El Trí call up but as a wide CB that’s basically a full back in practice, his numbers are elite, and if I’m in charge of the next window, is Orozco not an upgrade over Israel Reyes and Jorge Sánchez?
Something to watch as you cast your eyes towards Energizer Park today.
A bit of a weird week with the Sunday match and midweek NWSL; stay tuned for a St. Louis wrap up overnight and then a larger Ashley Sanchez forward NWSL piece on Monday.
