NWSL Playoff preview: Making sense of Decision Day

A fittingly chaotic NWSL Decision Day closed the door on the late-charging North Carolina Courage despite an impressive 3-2 win over Gotham FC. The miss is tough. Not just because the playoffs are worse for missing Manaka Matsukubo, but because last season, 35 points would have finished in 6th place. 

At the end of the night, NCC missed by one win or two draws. If they don’t lose the lead in Houston, if they don’t fail to jump out of the blocks hosting Bay FC, there are a handful of results that Sporting Director Dr. Ceri Bowley will point to as clear missed opportunities.

It’s a cause of underperforming through Sean Nahas’s firing earlier this season, the Courage finished third in expected goals differential, second in expected points, and yet they’re stuck watching the playoffs from the front lawn with their face plastered against the window. 

There are some important questions to answer in Carolina. Is Nathan Thackeray the manager going forward? Probably not, the underlying numbers have gotten worse following Nahas’s firing, which may point to other reasons why Nahas was let go. However, his Courage did score seven goals over the last two matches of the season, two of the four matches where the Courage scored more than twice this season. Thackeray deserves credit for the improved attack, or more accurately, for utilizing Manaka to the tune of leading the league in expected goals and assists since Thackeray took over. 

So, with NCC gone for the winter, let's dive into the playoffs and talk some soccer.

KC Current 

The Current stumbled out of the gate Sunday afternoon against San Diego’s structure that pinned KC back with a back three in possession, created numbers against potential counter opportunities, and recycled possession with Lundkvist dropping in line with the CBs to help facilitate quick switches from right to left. 

It’s been an issue without Temwa Chawinga – what team wouldn’t struggle without a league MVP? – but Vlatko Andonovski, once again, pushed the right buttons at halftime. San Diego had isolated Michelle Cooper down the flank, stifled transition opportunities, and kept the Current without a shot on target. Nichelle Prince and Elizabeth Ball replaced Bia, who came off with a knock, and Gabrielle Robinson at the half, and the Current benefited from Prince’s ability to help stretch the line with her mobility. Debinha’s dangerous free kick leveled the match before Prince and Haley Hopkins combined for the match-winner. 

The Current had nothing to play for on Decision Day, and maybe experimented with a few looks that weren’t ready for primetime, but they’ll have an unusually tricky 8th seed in Gotham next week. The Current have had to grit out more wins without Chawinga in the lineup, and while she’s close to returning, Andonovski all but ruled out her availability for round one. Luckily, the Current can point back to their 2-0 win a few weeks back, where Andonovski lined Cooper up on the left side of the lineup with Sentnor and Debinha interchanging on the opposite flank. The Current led that match 1-0 at the half before Chawinga took over the second half. It was a slog of a 45 minutes, with both sides combining for just 0.19 expected goals, as Gotham failed to attempt a single shot within the attacking third. 

In the second, as Chawinga’s runs forced the match to open up, Gotham were able to create chances but were still held to just 0.22 xG on target. Juan Carlos Amorós has to hate seeing Claire Hutton’s shut-down performance on Decision Day.

8. Gotham FC

Gotham shouldn’t be in this situation. There’s simply too much talent in this lineup to be an eight seed… and yet… they’ll have to hinge their hopes of a playoff run on upsetting a side that allowed just over one expected goal on target across both matches this season.

Some of this is explained by Tierna Davidson’s injury earlier in the season and Ann Katrin-Berger’s injury over the past month, but the lack of scoring is more alarming. Gotham finished the season ranked tenth in expected goals for in 2025, and while some of that is explained by Rose Lavelle’s injury, that number only jumps up to sixth since the arrival of Jaedyn Shaw. 

That isn’t to say that they have been hapless. 

Despite not lighting the world on fire since breaking the intra-league transfer record on Jaedyn Shaw, Gotham only trailed KC and NCC in expected goal differential since her arrival. 

That’s the potential danger for the Current. 

Gotham has been staunch defensively, and up against a Chawinga-less KC Current, they’ll have to tap into the momentum that generated 1.3 expected goals over the final ten minutes in North Carolina. That’s a small sample size, but it shows that Gotham can swarm into the attack and create room for Lavelle to pick up play between the lines. Gabi Portillo was explosive off the bench, but it came after Amorós pulled Jess Carter in favor of another attacker as the bats threw everything at the wall. That isn’t exactly sustainable, but they’ll have to find a way to tap into that urgency. 

It’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season. KC fans have a right to be uncharacteristically nervous ahead of this one. Anyways, every time I’ve sounded alarm bells on a KC Current performance this season, they’ve responded with a rout. Plan accordingly. 

Washington Spirit

Unlike the Current, DC was a little more cautious with their questionables on the final day of the season. Locked into second, Croix Bethune, Gift Monday, Rose Kouassi, and Leicy Santos were all held back due to various ailments and excused absences. So, with those absences in mind, there’s not much to read into the Spirit’s 0-1 loss to Utah. 

The Royals have been a tough out over the back half of the season, and without 3/4ths of their attack – and a halftime GK substitution – the Spirit weren’t their usual selves.

The Spirit should benefit from the extra rest; they’ve been through the wringer this season. However, they’ll need to be sharp against a Racing Louisville that has suddenly found goals outside of Emma Sears. 

That’s nothing Adrian Gonzalez’s side can’t handle; the Spirit allowed the third fewest expected goals against over the last ten matches. It’s slightly symptomatic of play without Trinity Rodman. Of course, Gonzalez would rather have the US international, but they have been far less likely to open themselves up in transition without her to stretch the play as the primary progressor. 

The playoffs don’t always play out the way we expect, and the fact that the Spirit needed Rose Kouassi’s 110-minute golazo to escape with a draw 6 weeks ago… nothing is certain. The Spirit does have the advantage of succeeding in playoff soccer, advancing to last year’s final despite multiple injuries to key contributors. Against a Racing side that has never been there before and doesn’t feature many players that have, it could be a huge difference. 

7. Racing Louisville

Racing Louisville qualified for the playoffs for the first time in club history thanks to a 48th-minute goal from rookie Ella Hase. The goal was just desserts for Bev Yanez’s squad after it started to look like North Carolina’s dominant play against Gotham would knock Racing into 9th for a fourth straight season.

In recent weeks, Racing has left Kentucky and beat NCC 1-3 and drew Gotham 2-2. At Audi, it’s a different story, especially if DC’s health has bounced back, but this is not a team to overlook. Over the past ten matches, Louisville only trails Kansas City in expected goals, while Jordyn Bloomer has saved 4.43 expected goals above average in that time. 

Following Sav Demello’s medical emergency, Louisville has adjusted towards more of a 4-1-4-1 on occasion, with Taylor Flint acting as the iron curtain, once again leading the league in tackles + interceptions. 

This is tricky. Louisville isn’t a better defensive team on paper than DC, but they are the more active defensive side. Louisville was fourth in total team tackles + interceptions this year, and only the Current (it’s always KC) committed fewer errors that led to shots. So, for Louisville to pull off the upset, they’ll have to be active. They’ll have to anticipate DC’s jumps down the flank – Emma Sears is third in blocked passes among all NWSL players this season, Taylor Flint is eighth, and Ella Hase is fourth among forwards – and shut down Tara McKeown’s ability to carry the ball out of the backline. 

There is a way forward, but the game plan must be perfectly executed… which might look like a complete mess. 

Portland Thorns

How about these Portland Thorns, eh? 

Rob Gale is still suffering from the perception of his start to life in Portland, but he deserves his Roses for how the young thorns have progressed across 2025. The addition of M.A. Vignola has been a total success, better balancing the lines, and has seen the Thorns allow just one goal in the four matches post-trade. It’s a small sample size, but the early return is encouraging, even before the Thorns spend their treasure chest of intra-league transfer funds. 

Portland’s success has been driven by good goalkeeping from Mackenzie Arnold, good performances across the backline, and an attack that sees Olivia Moultrie and Reilyn Turner rank 5th and 6th in expected goals + assists, while Moultrie finished with the 6th most points added from goals scored. 

It’s been a breakout season helped by Jessie Fleming and Sam Coffey providing veteran pressence throughout the midfield. 

Importantly, Portland won hosting rights on the last match of the season. The Thorns only trailed (you guessed it) the Kansas City Current with a 7-4-2 record at Providence Park this season. The matchup with San Diego will be tough. Neither side could pull one over on the other across both 1-1 matchups, including their matchup in Portland, where the xG was 1.31 - 1.29. 

6. San Diego Wave

The Wave came out swinging in KC this weekend, but ultimately faltered as the Current adjusted their game plan and kept SD to just one shot on target over the second half. 

I have not been high on San Diego this season, but they’ve turned it around over the last two months of the season, inverting from overachievers to underachievers. That’s the positive, Eideval’s side has looked much better in recent months, and they genuinely stifled the Current’s attack through the first half in KC. 

The fluid but structured approach to their buildup deserves praise in recent weeks. The ability to float in and out of a back three did a great job shutting down KC’s counter and transition opportunities. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to find a second look after KC adjusted. 

Now, that uptick in form has come against Utah, Chicago, and a KC with nothing to play for… but the connection between Kenza Dali and Dudinha is enough to win a playoff game. Dudinha has been the real game-changer in their late-stage resurgence. Only (say the line Bart) KC’s Temwa Chawinga has more goals per 96 minutes; that’s the skillset you need in an elimination match. 

Orlando Pride

If this is 2024, the Pride beat Seattle 3-1 on Decision Day… but this isn’t last year’s Pride. Orlando outplayed Seattle, outshot Seattle, outpassed Seattle, outdueled Seattle, but they couldn’t outscore Seattle. 

Heading into next week’s rematch there’s food for thought. Jaquie Ovalle has hit her stride with 27/29 passing, 0.40 xA, 3 chances created, and the go-ahead — for the time — assist. Ovalle doesn’t need many opportunities, she lost her fair share of duels, failed both of her 1v1 dribbles, but when she found herself on the ball in the 76th minute, she found Carson Pickett at the far post. 

Unfortunately, Seattle equalized moments later.

Play this match ten times, and Orlando win at least seven. At least they’ll have to hope that’s the case.

The Pride still need someone to step up and lead the attack, they don’t need someone to be Barbra Banda, but they need someone that can take the pressure off of Marta and Ovalle, and demand attention through the middle of the pitch. So far, Simeone Charley has been their best option, but if her injury keeps her out this weekend, they’ll need someone to step into that vacuum.

Seattle Reign

The Reign had a bad week. Laura Harvey caught flack for upping Chat GPT in her coaching process, the Reign dropped out of a home playoff spot and watched their Cascadia rival soar into third.

There were some bright spots though. 

For one, Jordyn Bugg scored her third goal of the season in her return from the international break. Seattle were also solid defensively in open play. They only allowed .73 xG from open play, and were able to answer Orlando’s go ahead goal almost immediately.

That’s where the positives end

Seattle has massively overachieved their expected numbers this year, and Sunday was no different. One goal on .09 xG from open play… yikes.

Laura Harvey’s side has not been able to connect their attacking players this season, and their bunker ball is unlikely to work again against the equally bunkers Orlando Pride. The difference is that the Pride have a functional attack. They miss the final product, but compared to Seattle they’re light years ahead. 

Claudia Dickey should win the league MVP and I’m only half joking. Dickey has prevented 12.2 goals across 26 games according to FBref, 6.2 more than 2nd placed Lorena. Without Dickey, the Reign wouldn’t be a playoff squad, not even close.

However, a goalkeeper can win you a playoff match, and Dickey has incentive to continue pushing the envelope, the starting USWNT job could be on the line.