MLS Playoff takeaways: Is this thing on?

Do you feel that cool fall air? It’s playoff season in MLS, baby! 

The opening round of fixtures have been fairly predictable so far, but there were still a few notable outliers. 

The Shield-winning Philadelphia Union struggled to assert itself against the play-in-winning Chicago Fire. Charlotte stumbled after Wilfried Zaha’s late match red card on the final day of the season, and Dallas lost hope much quicker than expected.

So, let’s dive into the numbers and see if anyone has a chance to force a game three… or if we’re just going to be waiting three weeks in between playoff matches. Is this format working for you? 

Sound off in the comments.

San Diego FC - Portland Timbers

SDFC feasted on the energy in San Diego to kick off their inaugural playoff campaign. They took play from sideline to sideline, spraying balls into space, taking their opportunities, and running away with the match from the opening whistle. In reality, match one was finished after 25 minutes at Snapdragon. San Diego controlled the flow, passed Portland to death, and forced Portland to play through them over the next 65 minutes.

Portland, to their credit, had more fight than Mikey Varas’s side may have expected.

The Timbers grabbed one back just as San Diego began to sit back after some early warning shots. David Ayayla sent a ball deep into SDFC territory, perfectly placed into the path of Kristoffer Velde as he bounded forward. SDFC dealt with the one v one, but quickly pounced on a turnover moments later against the run of play. Velde converted as he ran in alone against the weak side shoulder of Christopher McVey. 

That’s how Portland is going to need to play if they are to claw back into the series. Stay patient, force San Diego to pass into the net, and pounce on any uncharacteristic turnover. 

Portland had opportunities in San Diego – might be an issue in the next round – but back-to-back dumb yellows sent Jimer Fory to the locker room early, sealing the final scoreline. 

That field tilt was impressive.

Vancouver Whitecaps - FC Dallas

This was always going to be a rough matchup for Dallas. The Caps are rolling, especially in front of a record crowd at BC Place. 

I mean…

Dallas was held to just one shot attempt that didn’t even sniff Takaoka’s net after he misjudged a wayward clearance. It was the exact way that Dallas were going to need to make an impact in this series, but they had no shot on night one. 

Thomas Müller created 1.94 xG+xA on his own, while seven Whitecaps created more than the entirety of FC Dallas. 

Dominant. Suffocating. The Caps are a problem.

LAFC - Austin FC

Austin FC continues to be a bogey club for LAFC. The clash of styles is apparent. Austin has kept LAFC’s attacking opportunities at bay, only allowing one goal through both of their regular season meetings. However, their win earlier this month was against an abysmally weak LAFC attack, which was struggling to cope with their international absences, and the arrival of the new Denis Bouanga and Heung-Min Son partnership threw a wrench into those earlier successes. 

Son was the difference maker. Even as Austin was able to dictate the pace of the match – even controlling the field tilt – it was Son that created seven chances, five more than any Austin FC player. 

His most influential run came late, knifing through the Verde midfield, just as Austin began to believe in their ability to break the hearts of LA sports fans for a second time that night. 

Fin.

So, now Austin has a chance to regroup and go again in more friendly confines. They’ll have to make it a boring affair, but if they can continue to execute their gameplan – read not allow Son or Bouanga on the ball in transition – then they can absolutely force a game three back in LA.

After the match, Steve Cherundolo lamented on his squad’s lot over if they are to advance, that they are likely to hit the road if they are to end the season with a title, saying, “We haven’t had a chance to raise a trophy away from home.”

Minnesota United - Seattle Sounders

The Loons executed their game plan perfectly. Throw sand in the gears, hope for dead ball opportunities, and let the probable MLS Goalkeeper of the Year prevent 1.8 goals on target.

That isn’t to say that MNUFC didn’t create their own trouble, but this should have been a match that Seattle brought home up 1-0 in the series. Instead, a triple doink in the PK shootout handed Minnesota a crucial playoff win. 

Have faith in the Sounders’ ability to take it to Minnesota at home and force a game three, but this team could be running out of steam; the Loons can use that frustration. 

Still, give Danny Musovski another 1.37 xG – singlehandedly outplaying MNUFC in just 18 minutes – on the doorstep and he converts at least one opportunity…

You would hope. Unlucky.

Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire

Gregg Berhalter studied some tape from Bradley Carnell’s 2023 first-round series with Sporting Kansas City ahead of this one. The game was brought to a halt for over 70 minutes, both sides generating just 0.33 expected goals in the first half, only opening up when Indiana Vassilev finally penetrated Chicago’s backline in transition. Milan Iloski quickly made it 2-0 in the 75th minute… but the Fire weren’t down. Mo Bamba brought one back in the 84th minute, followed by a former friend, Jack Elliott’s equalizer in stoppage time. 

After a tense shootout, Carnell’s side escaped from the jaws of disappointment, but they aren’t out of danger. 

This was a fever dream, and I’d like two more of these, please. 

Back in Chicago, the Fire will be energized with a clearly functional gameplan, and Carnell with have to show that he can pivot away from his approach. He couldn’t do it against KC in 2023, but this Union team has more options than his St. Louis expansion side… but it does not bode well for the second round. 

Prove me wrong. 

Cincinnati FC - Columbus Crew

Hell is Real in this MLS Playoffs tonight, and the first round match lived up to the billing. Night one was cagey; two sides that know each other well would not budge. Much like many matches in round one, neither side ran away with opportunities and split big misses in the first half. 

The Lions allowed Columbus more possession in the second half. Nancy’s side became impatient, and Kevin Denkey finally tapped in the go-ahead goal in the 78th minute. 

“It was just a good team performance, and we will go again on Sunday,” Pat Noonan reflected.

Ultimately, the Crew haven’t had the weapons to match Cincy, but Arfsten, Gazdag, and Herrera all missed big chances throughout the night. There were opportunities, but Cincinnati took the opening favors in Southern Ohio. 

Wilfried Nancy isn’t worried about the game one loss; he knows exactly where things went wrong. “In terms of goal kicks, we knew that they like to do this kind of pattern," Nancy said on the sequence leading to Denkey’s goal. "We were not aggressive on this one on the first pass. After that, on the last pass, in terms of body position, we have a bad body position ... That's why we conceded this goal."

It was Pat Noonan’s first win over Columbus this season after losing 2-4 at TQL in July; this series is far from over. 

Inter Miami CF - Nashville SC

Lionel Messi was a man on a mission in the opening bout of the 2025 playoffs. 

Nashville sat off, leaving too much space around one of the best players to ever step onto a soccer pitch, and paid for it with a brace against just 53 touches over 90 minutes.

Miami then passed the coyotes to death, compressing BJ Callaghan’s formation, while isolating both Surridge and Schaffelburg out wide. Nashville’s consolation goal in the 101st minute betrays how out of depth they were throughout the night, unfortunately characteristic of a squad that has not played Miami well, losing six and drawing one across all competitions through the last two seasons.

Nashville will have to run it back at Geodis, friendly confines for a club that has been night and day away from home this season. Well, except that they lost 5-2 back in Tennessee earlier this month. 

Read about why the tactical approach didn't work from our friends at SixOneFive.

Charlotte FC - NYCFC

The lone upset over the first slate of matches came at the hands of NYCFC, but in reality, this was always going to be hard for Charlotte after Zaha’s ill-timed red card on Decision Day. Charlotte couldn’t get out of the starting blocks, compounded by Alonso Martinez’s opening goal in the 34th minute. From there, NYCFC shut it down, the game screamed to a halt, and the two sides generated a combined 0.82 xG on target over the next 56 minutes.

It was grim. CFC didn't sniff the upper hand.

Now, the Pigeons bring the lead back to NYC, and while Charlotte will have Zaha at their disposal, Charlotte could only manage two shots on target in their trip earlier this season. 

It’s going to take something special to beat Matt Freese, who might be the most in-form keeper in the Eastern Conference right now.