Leave Barbra Banda Alone, and a Decision Day primer.

The National Women’s Soccer League has opened itself up to criticism for its lack of policy regarding trans-athletes this season. In the past, players such as OL Reign midfielder Quinn – the first trans non-binary athlete to win an Olympic Gold medal – drew attention to the league’s failure in leading the way on trans protections. As harmful rhetoric ramped up over the past decade, politicians have pushed for blanket bans on trans children competing in sports. That push has empowered bad-faith actors to target non-binary, LGBTQ, and any athlete who doesn’t fit into their mold of Western femininity. NWSL stars have continually advocated against this restrictive legislation, pointing out the legislation’s effects, giving administrators ammo to disrupt the lives of youth athletes based on a fairy tale of men competing in women’s sports for “fame and fortune,” as Angel City player Liz Eddy penned in the New York Post this week.

That storyline is completely divorced from reality. 

There are currently no transgender athletes in the NWSL, nor are there any trans athletes likely to enter the league anytime soon. In fact, there were fewer than 10 trans athletes in the entire NCAA last year, less than 0.002% of the entire collegiate system. 

The big argument against trans inclusion centers around the idea that male puberty leads to higher testosterone levels, more fast-twitch muscle fibers, and a general strength advantage after transitioning, but the actual science does not bear that out.

Studies are ongoing, and the science is always evolving as the sample size increases, but a 2023 study found that Gender-Affirming Hormone Therapy (GAHT) wreaks havoc on that perceived advantage. While the muscular and skeletal advantages are undeniable, trans athletes had significantly lower hormone levels, lost lean muscle mass, and found that “Overall body composition in trans women (fat mass 32.3%, lean mass 65.0%) was similar to cisgender women”. 

The fact is, the science is far from settled on any competitive advantage trans individuals may have, especially with individual genetics still the primary driver of athletic success. These policies aren’t safeguarding women’s sports from “opportunistic” men; these policies mainly hurt cisgender women who don’t conform to a certain observer's idea of what a female athlete should look like. 

The grift is laid bare when the attacks from publications such as the New York Post have disproportionately affected African athletes. The Post has specifically targeted Barbra Banda and Temwa Chawinga, among other African athletes in the past, inferences that forced the NWSLPA to denounce a series of discriminatory incidents targeting Banda earlier this season. 

Frankly, the NWSL needs to hop off the fence, but not in the way Eddy suggests in her op-ed. 

When legislation and executive orders aim to cut off gender affirming care at the knees, it’s on the country’s preeminent women’s sports organizations to provide some shelter for less than 3% of the population who are running out of inclusive spaces. Most of those affected being adolescents during a very vulnerable time, including multiple instances of misprinted birth certificates affecting male students, an obvious affect of the confusing language found in most of these bills.

As Becky Sauerbrunn wrote in the Springfield News-Leader all the way back in 2023:

“The bills don’t consider any of the actual challenges to women and girls in sport. The proposed “Save Women’s Sports Act” does nothing to protect or support girls and women in sports. If those putting forth this legislation actually listened to the needs and concerns of women in sports, they would outline clear steps to protect women and girls from the rampant sexual assault and harassment plaguing sports — issues we’ve been fighting in the NWSL. They would clarify what’s being done to ensure all institutions in Missouri are Title IX compliant. They would outline a plan to promote equal pay for women athletes. They would ensure young women and girls have equitable resources in sport, especially young women and girls of color. Instead, they’re pushing kids away from the life-changing power of sports, forever depriving them of the invaluable lessons sport teaches, and the best friends they would find on their teams.”

Alright, let’s get into the soccer: A narrative for everyone on Decision Day.

KC Current: Health and safety.

Vlatko Andonovski will be excited to see Ally Sentnor, Michelle Cooper, Claire Hutton, and Lo’eau Labonta return from international duty unscathed. Andonovski will have to kick off the Current’s championship campaign without likely MVP Temwa Chawinga for at least the first two rounds.

Hosting the Wave, this could be a final chance for some heavy rotation. Cooper and Hutton played 137 and 144 minutes over the international break, with Sentnor and Labonta playing 90+ minutes as well. A rest would do them well, and the Current know what they have at this point… 

I still expect a strong starting XI, it’s just Andonovski’s nature, but Alex Pfeiffer should see another extended runout after Cooper’s hard shift in Wednesday’s USWNT barnburner.  

Washington Spirit: One last chance to evolve without Trinity Rodman.

The Spirit joins the Current with nothing to really play for on Sunday, but there are still questions to answer, with Trinity Rodman also likely to miss the Spirit’s opening matchup. Adrián González suffered his first defeat without Rodman against Orlando, but that match featured a rotated lineup without Rose Kouassi, Tara McKeown, and just 45 minutes of Croix Bethune. So, González could continue to rotate in Utah, but there is an incentive to give at least 45 minutes to a stronger XI. 

González’s Spirit has enough talent to manage a few rounds without Rodman, but the margin for error is much higher without the ability to focus transition down the right flank.

Orlando Pride: “Look at me, I’m the director now.” - Jacquie Ovalle

Are the Pride ok now? Orlando looked poised to finish outside of the top four once the seriousness of Barbra Banda’s injury became apparent. Seb Hines’s squad lost four of five following the Wet Bulb match in KC, but things have turned around following Jaquie Ovalle’s uptick in form. She was never going to be as ineffective in open play as she was in her first month in Orlando, and part of that equation was Hines figuring out her usage. Without Banda and with Marta’s minutes declining, Orlando was desperate for someone to take on a higher usage rate. The league’s record-breaking signing has thrived in that role.

Ovalle has created nine chances in her last five NWSL appearances and has found quick chemistry with Marta through the central spaces. 

In 666 minutes, Ovalle already ranks 3rd in expected assists and leads Orlando with 0.24 xA per 96 minutes, along with 2.16 key passes and 0.48 xG + xA. Since her arrival, only Rose Lavelle, Olivia Moultrie, and Kenza Dali average more key passes per 96 minutes…. That’s a pretty good early sign.

Seattle Reign: Can Chat GPT secure home-field advantage?

I had a much bigger section planned for the Reign and their extreme xGD outlier status this season, but then Laura Harvey admitted to asking ChatGPT for advice on formations to play against each NWSL club, using a back five against two teams that she wouldn’t name.

I wonder…

Oh no.

So you’re telling me that one of the three teams to beat the KC Current this year was informed by the word prediction machine? 

I can’t. 

San Diego Wave: More like San Diego ride the wave, am I right?

I thought the Wave were done, the underlying stats thought the Wave were done, but here they are, riding Kenza Dali and Dudinha to back-to-back wins over Utah and Chicago. Now, it’s maybe not impressive to beat Utah and Chicago, but the six-point swing has them in striking distance of a home playoff match. Dali completed 110 passes in those two wins, while Delphine Cascarino generated over 1.1 xG + xA on her own in the 6-1 win over Chicago. 

For the Wave’s sake, they probably don’t want a home playoff match with how poor they’ve been at home this season, but it’s still a testament to their roster build that they were able to power through the fog of despair surrounding the front office over the past two seasons. 

A win in KC would be a major statement of intent after the Current walked into San Diego and took their lunch money.

Portland Thorns: Olivia Moultrie is one of this league’s marquee players.

Olivia Moultrie has three braces in her past four matches for club and country. She’s ascending into star status right before our eyes. 

The Thorns have struggled against the NWSL’s elite this season, but with Houston coming to town, a win looks likely to vault them into the top four with San Diego visiting KC, and Seattle visiting Orlando. Rob Gale deserves a lot of credit for developing the Thorns's young contributors this season, and M.A. Vignola has fit like a glove since arriving in the Suguita trade. 

The Thorns could finish as high as third with a win, along with dropped points from San Diego, and a combined draw in Orlando – not what many predicted this offseason. 

Gotham FC: How did this happen?

It’s not completely doom and gloom in Gotham, but there’s a strong chance that they don’t host a playoff match after picking up just two points from their last three matches. Gotham’s finishing has let them down in the absence of Esthér, and they’ll have to hope Jaedyn Shaw’s play results in more goals, combining with Lavelle and Midge Purce on the opposite flank.

This is more of a product of their slow start and Rose Lavelle needing time to get back up to speed, but the task becomes increasingly difficult if they have to travel to KC in round two of the playoffs. As of now, Juan Carlos Amarós’s side would face DC at Audi in the first round, which is not a matchup either will want to kick things off.

Gotham is better than their record; they’re still in my elite tier, but they dug a hole that might have been too deep to crawl out of on the final day of the season.

Amarós must have been jumping for joy when Emma Hayes subbed Rose Lavelle at halftime in Kansas City. 

Racing Louisville: Avoiding a 4th straight 9th-place finish, and how to find goals along the way.

Emma Sears’s hat trick in Kansas City was the cherry on top of an ascendant season in Louisville. Sears ranks 4th in goals + assists this season, and has even slightly underperformed her expected finishing numbers. Louisville can clinch with any result, but the ghost of ninth-place finishes of the past four seasons has not been exorcised just yet.

Louisville has only finished in ninth since entering the league. They’ll have to hope they don’t play down to their opponent again, like they have in their 1-1 draw against Chicago and 3-2 loss in Utah. A stretch of three straight losses in September came as they generally outplayed Portland, Seattle, and Utah; their finishing didn’t live up to their expected numbers.

Bev Yanez will have to hope that Emma Sears can upend that trend after completing the first USWNT hat trick since Sophia Smith in 2022.

North Carolina Courage: Will Manaka be available?

Potentially worrisome, Manaka Matsukubo was pulled from international duty this week with an injury. There’s not much info on the injury just yet, but the Courage will be hamstrung without a player who has scored four goals in her past three NCC starts.

Nathan Thackaray will have to hope the Courage’s defensive structure can continue to stifle open play opportunities. The Courage rank third in expected goal differential, but they’ll need someone to put the ball in the net. There is no margin for error; they must win and hope that Louisville stumbles against Bay… that becomes incredibly difficult without their MVP.

Houston Dash: Incredibly, they’re here. 

I had the Dash as one of the worst teams in the NWSL coming into the season, maybe slightly outpacing Chicago, but Fabrice Gautrat has made a fool out of this newsletter. 

Locked out of the playoffs, the Dash could still finish as high as ninth after becoming just the third team to beat the KC Current this season. 

Avery Patterson has to be hungry to get back to NWSL play after a frustrating international window playing on her offside. Now, they’re playing free of expectations as Portland knows a home playoff match is on the line; teams have folded under less pressure.

Angel City: This club must commit to a top-down culture shift.

Front Office Sports published an interview with founding ACFC owner Alexis Ohanian, and it was equal parts refreshing and “duh” inducing. 

It’s become increasingly frustrating that tech leaders have failed to see the forest through the trees of their pet ideas. What works in the world of tech startups doesn’t track 1:1 into other industries, and yet DOGE exists. 

Ohanian admitted that the startup structure of ACFC’s initial structure held them back, and wasn’t the right structure for what a forward-thinking professional sports organization needs to ensure success on the pitch.

“That works great in tech,” Ohanian said to FSO. “In sports, it’s a terrible idea.”

Looking at how fraught those front office dealings have been, the points deduction for going over the salary cap last season, the ousting of Angela Hucles Mangano, while Julie Urman appears untouchable. Bob and Willow Iger should have seen enough to explore a new direction, but are they at the wheel? Ultimately, this culture of boasting about ambition without following it up with player acquisitions hasn’t worked. Angel City has only made the playoffs once in their first four seasons, and sold their best player amidst this season’s playoff push.

Fans are at an inflection point, the club’s milqutoast response to Liz Eddie’s NY Post op-ed didn’t help. However, the retirement ceremonies for Ali Riley and Christen Press were well done. Players see that, along with the general investment into training facilities and player welfare, and see ACFC as a destination – especially if they learn to leverage the LA lifestyle like their MLS counterparts. 

Utah Royals: One last time to remind ownership that this club exists.

I am once again impressed with what Jimmy Coenraets has done with this roster over the back half of 2025. 

Maybe it’s the product of a lack of pressure, but it should be a sign to ownership that investment in the roster can be rewarded. The Royals are still averaging an attendance of 8,690 despite selling their franchise player to a league rival. Hopefully, the signing of Lara Prašnikar is a sign of what’s to come, but there’s a lot of work to do with a roster that ranks last in expected goal differential this season. That they’ve gritted their way to a 12th placed finish is somewhat noteworthy. 

Bay FC: The rebuild is almost here.

Bay has already committed to cleaning house and embracing a proper roster build. Last season’s playoff appearance was a false idol; now it’s time to bury their toxic culture and build something fresh. Bay has a lot going for it; the market is hungry to embrace them, but they have a lot of work to do and have been a little too cautious in cutting ties with Albertin Montoya.

Chicago Stars: Play Micayla Johnson.

The season is done, the players have all but quit, so play the kids.