How close is Mauricio Pochettino's October USMNT roster?

Mauricio Pochettino’s October USMNT roster is starting to paint a clearer picture of what to expect at next summer’s World Cup.

There are some interesting exclusions – like there always seems to be – but this camp looks to be much less transformative than the post-Gold Cup fallout of last window. 

Still, some interesting battles are developing, including a GK group that featured four call-ups this time around. I don’t see that lasting long, but it betrays how malleable Pochettino still is on his full 26-man roster.

"They need to convince us to call again." - Mauricio Pochettino

GOALKEEPERS:

The keeper job is Matt Freese’s to lose at this point. He’s been good for the USMNT since sliding on the gloves, and he’s been solid for NYCFC. 

The Pigeons lost a key one in Philadelphia this weekend, but Freese was not the issue. He faced five big chances, including two shots on target worth over 0.3 expected goals, and handled them as expected. Freese doesn’t have the best numbers among the players in camp, and is the second American shotstopper in MLS this season (+3.5 post-shot expected goals saved). Still, it’s his spot to lose, and the lack of glaring errors seems valuable to Pochettino. 

Meanwhile, Chris Brady also seems like a shoo-in for the team. 

While Brady has made mistakes this season, the 21-year-old keeper has been the 6th-best shot stopper in MLS despite his limitations with the ball at his feet. Even with those errors, Brady is the heir apparent and has had the best impact per 96 minutes out of all of the keepers in camp this season. 

Brady may be the best keeper of the bunch on a match-by-match basis this season, but Matt Turner has been the best keeper recently. Since Matt Turner returned to MLS on loan, he’s been the 4th best all-around goalkeeper according to ASA’s model while stopping +3.0 PSxG – a stat that trails only Sean Johnson on a per-90-minute basis this season. 

It’s a bit of a wash. Turner has been the better goalkeeper, but he’s going to have to show it for a while before he regains trust. Then, while Freese hasn’t been as good a pure shotstopper, he’s been a successful sweeper keeper. 

The inclusion of Patrick Schulte is the eye-opener here. 

Schulte is the only keeper who makes an impact with his passing in this group, and he trails only Óscar Ustari in defensive actions outside of the box, but his PSxG+/- ranks just 16th among MLS shotstoppers. He’s been prone to crucial errors this season as well, with two errors that have directly led to goals, including a howler against Orlando City this past weekend.  

There is no perfect keeper in this pool. How Pochettino decides to parse these differences ahead of the next international camp will come down to how much value he allocates towards a keeper’s ability to help build possession, and how much value he puts in recognizing impending danger. Neither door is shut on Zack Steffen, as well.

DEFENDERS:

The competition along the backline is more straightforward. 

Tim Ream and Chris Richards are the nailed-on CB pair, with Richards winning the 9th most tackles in the EPL while playing every minute for the 6th placed Crystal Palace through 7 matchdays. Sergiño Dest was left off the squad due to “injury concerns,” but in his place will be Orlando City’s Alex Freeman as the only RB on the roster. On the other flank, Max Arfsten will reprise his role, presumably, as the RWB in the 3-4-3 that worked pretty well vs Japan last time out. Arfsten’s place is tenuous as Antonee Robinson returns to camp for the first time since his injury last season, but he, too, finds himself in unfamiliar territory. 

Robinson hasn’t found his form since returning to action in London and was left off the pitch entirely in Fulham’s loss to Bournemouth this past weekend. Some of that is down to Fulham’s shift into a 3-4-2-1 in recent weeks, and some of that is down to his injury leading to a disjointed preseason. So, this camp offers an opportunity to acquaint himself with Pochettino’s game plan, while finding his own form that a lack of gametime has inhibited so far this season. If not, he is facing some pressure from Arfsten. He’s become one of the best wingbacks in North America this year and plays in a system that requires flexibility. His role in Columbus doesn’t always seem replicable in the national team, but he did pick up an assist vs Japan.

It is interesting, then, that Pochettino has painted himself into a corner on the right side. Freeman has been a revelation this year, leading all MLS defenders in expected goals and trailing just Jordi Alba and Kai Wagner in expected assisted goals. 

..but what is the rotation after Freeman? Is Poch sold on Dest as #1, meaning Freeman’s place as key depth is most important this camp? It’s curious in a world where Joe Scally is playing well at Borussia Mönchengladbach and could feasibly offer coverage at both RWB and RCB in a back 3. However, Scally’s limitations in the attack hang over this conversation, but he is far from a one-way wingback. He ranks 6th amongst Bundesliga defenders with 10 carries into the attacking third through 5 matches, and has 1/4th of Gladbach’s goal-creating actions. 

Some of Pochettino’s comments have revolved around why certain players haven’t been included. That conversation lately has included the manager’s desire to juggle a player's ability to play consistently when the matches are three days apart, and a player’s ability to “follow the rules, and behave in the way that we want with all of the respect to not just try to win the games but help us build something important.”

So, with Scally effectively iced out, what does the backline depth look like?

The 3rd CB spot most likely goes to Celtic’s Cameron Carter-Vickers, but Mark McKenzie should be looked at as well. CCV has been nearly perfect for Celtic this season through their early slate of Scottish Premiership matches and Europa League qualifying, but McKenzie has also started every minute for Toulouse in Ligue 1. McKenzie has had strong performances against Nice and Lyon this season, but he hasn’t been nearly as consistent as CCV or even Cincinnati’s Miles Robinson. 

There’s an opportunity here, as Tristan Blackmon did not impress last month. 

MIDFIELDERS:

Pochettino should give the 3-4-3 its due, but the number of midfielders and forwards called into camp hints at the manager’s apprehension in completely abandoning the 4-2-3-1. 

No Tyler Adams means that this is a full-on audition in the midfield next to Weston McKennie. 

In the 4-2-3-1, Luna, Tillman, and Aaronson could all work at the top of the midfield. That race should be led by Tillman after his recent run of form in Leverkusen, but Aaronson is a sneaky pick with how important he has been for Leeds despite the lack of goal contributions. 

In the 4-2-3-1, Pochettino has brought a myriad of options to run the double pivot. Whether that’s James Sands and Weston McKennie, Aidan Morris and Tanner Tessmann, or whatever combination that makes the Christian Roldan callup work 

This should be a breakout camp for Sands, who has looked the part in a more prominent role within St. Pauli’s midfield. Sands trails only Hoffenheim’s Bernardo in both completed tackles and tackles + assists, making him a good option to fill in for Tyler Adams. Sands isn’t the ball progressor in St. Pauli’s midfield, and while he doesn’t possess the numbers with the ball like Tyler Adams, he grants solidity in the formation that can be crucial. 

Tanner Tessmann can be a middle option. At Lyon, he’s expected to share the load in progressing the ball, while leading Ligue 1 in blocked attempts and sitting 12th in passes into the final 3rd. 

Regardless of the rotation, there’s pressure on this group.

Yunas Musah was once again left off the roster this month. Musah was navigating a move to Atalanta last window and is only now starting to play some important minutes since arriving from Milan. The 22-year-old assisted Atalanta’s Champions League game-winner last week in a substitute appearance, important as Pochettino preaches competition. 

“The possibility to fight for a place is a thing that is really important for us,” Pochettino said last week. “It’s not because of your name that you are going to be on the roster for the World Cup. I think that is an idea that we have been fighting in the last year to try to fix and change the culture, change the vision, change the idea of “because in the past I performed in some way or because I did well 4 years ago I am right to come and use my place”, I think that has changed a lot.” 

FORWARDS:

Ok, let’s stop pretending like the starting striker is anyone besides Folarin Balogun.

Balogun isn’t running away with the Ligue 1 scoring title but he has been a good creator and pivotal to some big moments in Monaco. In Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Nice, Balogun came on at half with Monaco trailing by a goal. He was isolated for most of his appearance but when he was utilized, he thrashed a shot on target and won the match tying penalty.

Patrick Agyemang and Haji Wright will get their moments but — as exhibited by Josh Sargent’s National team struggles — Balogun is the one that has shown he brings a fuller package to the position compared to the rest of the player pool.

Of course, Haji Wright’s goal scoring record deserves a chance in the starting XI for one of the friendlies. Wright leads the English Championship in goalscoring through 9 matches, including 3 goals across 2 matches last week. 

Then, how Pochettino uses Pulisic and Zendejas underneath the striker will be more important. It’s why the 3-4-3 seems so fruitful. It allows Pulisic and Zendejas to play as the inside forwards, combining in overlaps and under laps with the wingbacks, while adding more danger in the attack. In the 4-2-3-1 that can evolve into Pulisic and Weah on the wings, maybe even Pulisic pushing inside as Robinson claims the wide spaces.

The parts are flexible, Aaronson and Luna can also work on the wings, but the best XI will really come into form with how they set up against Ecuador.

These should be winnable matches, especially with Pulisic enjoying one of the world's best forms right now. However, with the focus on the process... be prepared for some reactions if they stumble against either Ecuador or Australia.