David Critchley has made his case in St. Louis

What a night.

St. Louis CITY SC drew Real Salt Lake 2-2 on Decision Day in a nearly disastrous result for the Claret and Cobalt. Both sides wore exhaustion on their face at full time, St. Louis players for pushing until the very end, RSL for holding onto the draw and saving their playoff spot. 

RSL were in a better position; they jumped on St. Louis early, scoring twice in the first 32 minutes, taking advantage of miscues and poor spacing between the first-time CB pair of Fallou Fall and Kyle Hiebert. Both goals were driven by miscues, with Roman Bürki calling himself out for his misread of when to jump into the play on Olatunji’s second goal of the night. 

“It's also a little bit on me. I think on a better day, I would stand higher.” Bürki recalled, fresh off announcing his 2-year contract extension. “I would anticipate that pass into the space, and maybe be there to clear it. I think that's what both of the center-backs also thought. It's definitely also on me in this situation and today.”

However, something clicked during Critchley’s halftime talk. 

Kyle Hiebert was dispatched to mark Olatunji 1v1 up and down the pitch, Diego Luna was more specifically marked, and the attack took advantage, pinning RSL back and taking the space afforded to them as RSL let their foot off the gas pedal.

“The messaging was to keep Totty and Conrad higher to create 2v1s in those wider lanes,” Critchley said. “Then put the responsibility on Chris Durkin, Fallou, and Kyle to just make sure that in the second half, Olatunji, Luna, they had no time and space. I think you saw a much more aggressive trio with them three in the second half, and that's why we limited them to chances.”

CITY SC responded well to the tweaks. 

The attack created three big chances over the second frame, generating 1.59 expected goals to RSL’s 0.00. It was dominant, emptying the tank against a team that felt the walls closing in until LAFC’s stoppage time equalizer in Colorado kept RSL above the playoff line. 

Edu Löwen’s penalty was his ninth goal contribution in just over 1400 minutes this season, while João Klauss grabbed his tenth goal across all competitions. 

Drawing level, CITY SC pushed into the red, evidenced by Hiebert, Fall, and Conrad Wallem dropping to the floor at full time. It’s a group that gave it their all to assist a manager they hope returns with the squad next season. 

“I've been very proud.” Critchley reflected. “I know we conceded two goals today, but the defensive, I want to say mentality, overall, of the players has made me very happy and very proud. They brought in a lot to the defending side of the game now, and they are probably the two big moments I've enjoyed.”

Critchley has pushed the right buttons, and it has become increasingly apparent over the final ten matches of the season.

Yes, much like last year, it could be a false positive, but the underlying stats point to a squad trending up while still missing the top-end talent across the board of the top clubs in the league. 

Since the Aston Villa match, CITY SC have won 14 of the 30 points available, winning 3 of 5 on the road and a complete win over a Nashville side that leads the Eastern Conference in expected goal differential. Over that 10-match stretch, Critchley’s squad ranked 11th in expected goal differential (4th in the Western Conference), 8th in goals for (4th in the Western Conference), and jumped to 12th in expected goals after being ranked near the bottom of the league during Olof Mellberg’s tenure. 

Defensively, they’ve conceded as much as they have created, ranking at the bottom of the league in expected g+ allowed over the course of the season, with many of the group’s high danger opportunities against attacking the gaps between the centerbacks and the gap between the CB and the RB pushing into the attack.

At face value, the numbers suggest that Critchley’s system sacrifices defensive stability for creating more chances in the attacking zone. That’s true to an extent, only Charlotte and SKC allowed more g+ against this season, but there’s also a personnel question. 

Timo Baumgartl and Kyle Hiebert led the CB core in minutes played at 1754 and 1692, respectively. Henry Kessler, the expected #1 CB, started just 15 matches this season, just one more start than Josh Yaro who should be an emergency option at -0.75 goals added in his appearances. 

The numbers bear out a group that needs to be rebuilt with at least one shutdown CB that can cover for Fallou Fall’s eccentricities. Fall will be remembered for some of his mistakes since arriving at the end of the window, but the towering CB generated 0.54 g+ in his 576 minutes this year. That’s a profile at CB that CITY SC needs in a system like Critchley’s, while Baumgartl ranked third among all St. Louis players in goals added thanks to his ability to cut out passes in transition. However, neither really works together in a pair – signaled in the disastrous LAFC performance – leaving the incoming Sporting Director with an interesting decision to make around Kessler.

Will triggering his option commit too much salary to a CB core that: 1) can’t stay healthy for a full month? 2) Was last in xG allowed?

Captain Roman Bürki hinted at those decisions in his post-match availability following his commitment to the club through 2027.

Saying, “We need to bring in players who perform on a weekly basis, who you can start on a weekly basis and not play two games and then be injured for three games. [...] You need consistency in that part of the team; we need players who are available. Availability sometimes is more important than ability, you know, so I think that's very important for us.”

David Critchley also reflected on his squad’s availability this season, citing the injury issues that have punctuated the past two years of CITY SC soccer as difficulties in turning the group around quickly enough to really mount a climb into the playoff spots. Critchley showed his group can compete with those in the bottom half of the playoff places, but is that ambitious enough? Is that the squad’s ceiling as it's currently constructed?

Critchley had thoughts on the roster’s needs as well. 

“There's enough spots that you can score more goals in than the wide areas, as well. I think we have created goals with Klauss and [Marcel Hartel]. And, as of late, they have combined for 18, 19 goals maybe, centrally. We definitely want to be a team that can also create moments from wider areas and score goals, as well. Having personnel there that can create chances and score goals would be great for the team.” Critchley continued. “We also need to be very organized defensively. So maybe not a position for this, but a profile for this, is a really good defensive-against-the-ball-type player that prides himself in that phase of the game, moments. Could be a center back; could be a six; could be a fullback, but a really defensive-minded player on this team would really help us not concede as many goals.”

A really good defensive-against-the-ball-type player? Someone has been reading this newsletter! 

Read my thoughts on the club's options here

St. Louis CITY SC find clarity in thorough LAFC loss.

LAFC remained unbeaten vs CITY SC and the thorough result provided St. Louis with clarity. A reminder of where they need to be next season.

TALKIN' SOCCERJustin Horneker

The need is obvious, but those players don’t grow on trees. The new Sporting Director will have work to do, so would it make sense to then lean on a manager who has quickly won the admiration of the locker room? 

Sitting here in the aftermath of Decision Day, it’s hard to say that Critchley did enough given the stated ambition of Bürki and the front office. However, there’s reason to believe that a manager who at this time last season was managing the U19s can keep improving. Critchley proved multiple times over the course of the season that he can make pragmatic decisions to better match up with his opponents, and further proved that on decision day with the tactical tweaks at halftime. 

Critchley’s side grew into one of the more threatening attacks in MLS, if they add danger on the wings – coupled with the natural growth of Mykhi Joyner – and sure up the defensive ranks, the vision seems clear. Especially with the amount of work Critchley had to do to imbue confidence in a broken locker room without a preseason training camp to do so. 

“The one thing I was always wanting to be clear on when I stepped in was, for me, a lot more needed to be fixed than just the football on the field.” Critchley finished, answering candidly how he thought he performed this season. “I always said, I just wanted to be analyzed off the situation I was given. You know, I had a situation where I stepped into a locker room that was probably a little bit more disconnected than what we want. We had a lot of injuries thrown at us throughout the first short period of me stepping in. But overall, I'm happy with my performance. Yeah, I thought I did a good job.”

The Bürki extension:

Just ahead of kickoff, the Energizer lights dimmed as rain poured on the fans brave enough to leave the concourse. The video, a highlight reel featuring some of Bürki’s best saves in CITY Red, closed on the stoic Swiss keeper.

“I’m not going anywhere, St. Louis.” 

The contract is a two-year extension with a club option for the 2028 season that will take the keeper over the DP threshold. In practice, like in the 2025 season, that number can be brought down below the threshold, but it does offer a challenge for the incoming Sporting Director.

However, it was more important for Diego Gigliani and John Hackworth that the club’s inaugural captain stay in goal for the next two years of roster building. In Bürki, the club knows exactly what they are getting: a top 10 shotstopper – even if he continues to slide down the aging curve – who is also elite with the ball at his feet. Bürki carries an aura that would be difficult to replace immediately, and while his shot-stopping (post-shot expected goals allowed +/-) ranked 18th this season, only Portland keeper James Pantemis has generated more passing g+.

It’s an overpay, but the club will see more benefit in securing Bürki’s final years with the message it sends to players it will be recruiting this offseason. Bürki’s influence extends far deeper than the saves he makes on the pitch.