St. Louis CITY SC find clarity in thorough LAFC loss.

LAFC’s unbeaten run vs St. Louis CITY SC continued Saturday night as David Critchley’s side were outmatched against one of Major League Soccer’s most dangerous attacks. The 0-3 loss wasn’t unexpected, especially in light of Henry Kessler’s continued injury absence, but it was a gut punch to a club that expresses ambitions to compete with the Western Conference giants.

St. Louis seemed timid in moments that required bravery in how they 1v1 defended Heung-Min Son, and were disorganized by LAFC’s runs through the midfield.

On one level, CITY SC stopped LAFC's counters by desperately throwing bodies in front of the ball as they retreated into their defensive block; they didn’t allow a single high xG chance.

However, they weren’t effective in shutting those opportunities down completely. It would have been delusional to expect a perfect match, especially with the talent mismatch, but St. Louis’s inability to take care of the ball led to an inability to generate a good-great xG opportunity of their own. The timidness in the first half, led to an inability to find passing options out of pressure through most of the match, and when they did, LAFC galloped through the space CITY SC vacated as they attempted to jump forward.

Critchley talked about that specific issue in his post-match comments. 

“I'm not going to isolate any single player,” Critchley said. “If we can't get in behind the last line, maybe it's the defenders on the ball and can't play out of it. Maybe it's the midfield’s fault, and we can't connect enough passes. It's a collective on the ball tonight for us. We have to have players that are more brave playing in these types of events and situations, and getting on the ball and playing out of it. We didn't have that tonight.”

It’s one thing to have a poor defensive performance; it happens every week in this league, but the lack of genuine attacking moments is the kicker. St. Louis didn’t attempt a shot until Klauss’s header in the 25th minute, which was quickly followed up with Hugo Lloris turning away a genuinely good Sangbin opportunity. That attempt accounted for 0.74 of the squad’s 0.86 xG on target throughout the match, not hitting the target again until Löwen’s attempt in the 86th minute. 

As Critchley said, it was comprehensive.

Still, the big moments were a consequence of crucial errors. LAFC didn’t so much beat CITY SC as convince St. Louis to beat themselves by failing to execute on their gameplan.

LAFC’s first goal came as Conrad Wallem was crossed up receiving a pass from Edu Löwen, and his scuffed back pass landed directly in the path of a pressing Denis Bouanga. Elementary.

LAFC’s second goal comes as Timo Baumgartl cedes space in transition as Son charges forward, never attacking the ball as Son marches towards the box. Elementary.

LAFC’s third is also in transition; the ball was worked back to Son, who danced across the box with two layers of St. Louis defenders backing off to block a possible passing lane. The problem? Son simply lines his shot through the seam and past a screened Bürki. 

“I think we didn't have a thought already when we received the ball.” Löwen reflected afterwards. “Then oftentimes we just played a long ball and expected our wingers to win the long balls against their tall, strong defenders. And obviously that didn't work out. I think that's on us. We had a clear game plan, and we didn't execute it well. We were just very sloppy on the ball. And I feel like the guy on the ball often was the poorest guy on the pitch, because we kind of seemed, especially in the first half, we kind of seemed intimidated.”

The loss officially eliminated St. Louis from playoff contention.

Last week, this newsletter covered Roman Bürki’s impact and his potential contract as free agency looms large over the final stretch of the season. Bürki isn’t the only big decision that a new Sporting Director will have to make. CITY SC has 17 club options, 2 free agents, and a decision to make on Conrad Wallem’s buy option. 

So, let’s dive into the math. Where does the CITY SC roster stand? And where can they move on in order to strengthen key areas? 

Looking at the loss, it’s clear that CITY SC have three crucial areas of need – Goalkeeper decision notwithstanding – that will define how we watch the final two matches of the season. 

A defensive midfielder who can stay planted in the double pivot next to Edu Löwen, a Left Back, a Right Back, and a finisher.

Let’s talk finishing.

João Klauss is under pressure as a DP with just ten goal contributions in MLS this season, but is that number more tolerable if he’s a TAM player?

If Klauss is generating 14.1 expected goals + assists as a TAM player, the underperformance in front of goal isn’t as dire of a situation. Especially when you consider the difference in usage under David Critchley compared to the start of the season, 9 of those 10 contributions coming under Critchley.

If the new Sporting Director can grab a DP Right Wing who can finish in the space that Klauss creates with his physicality, then his impact makes more sense. Of course, the club could also move on entirely by picking up his option and selling him this winter, and with Simon Becher and Brendan McSorley on team-friendly deals, it would make sense to use the newly opened DP slot on a striker. 

So, assuming they pick up the option, Klauss’s new salary designation will have to influence moves elsewhere.

If CITY SC signs Bürki and Lundt and triggers every club option, then they would be over budget by $525,836.00, exhausting their $2,493,000 of rollover GAM even with the extra $2,000,000 of the 2DP/4U22 profile.

Did your eyes glaze over? Stick with me for a second.

However, if they move on from Cedric Teuchert and Bürki while bringing back Klauss and Henry Kessler then they would save around $3,049,969 against the TAM budget and open up much more flexibility. 

Let’s assume those are the decisions they make based on the budget charge divided by production, based on ASA’s goals added model, then let’s assume they stay with the 2DP, 4U22 model, the opportunity to reshape the roster completely comes into view. 

Then, there’s also an interesting decision to make with Sangbin Jeong’s option. Sangbin’s g+ impact is -1.06, meaning that the impact of his 2.5 expected goals this season hasn’t been worth the negative impact of his shot selection, pass selection, and decisions of when to try and take on defenders.

That number improves to -.19 since he arrived in St. Louis, but CITY can not afford to miss on his U22 slot unless they believe that he can take a major step forward next season... or if they can sell him on.

Clarified by sources at MLS, JGR will still occupy one U22 slot despite being on loan next season, meaning that the slot opened by Durkin’s graduation is at a premium if Sangbin is still on the roster, which means that they would be all but forced into the 2/4 designation if the new SD wants to add via the U22 mechanism.  

So, maybe the solution is declining the options on Durkin and Sangbin, opening up more flexibility with just 1 DP and 2 U22 spots accounted for heading into a crucial offseason. 

Regardless, CITY has to add goals; they have to add someone who can routinely outperform their expected goals, and those players don’t grow on trees. 

Solidity at the 6.

Chris Durkin has been the preferred option next to Edu Löwen this season. Managers like what he brings to the table on the ball, and his effort in defending, disrupting, and challenging second balls. He's a good defensive midfielder with a glaring susceptibility. Durkin’s impact in those areas is canceled out by his positioning, his decision making on when to pass into dangerous areas, and, most frustratingly, when to foul.

Besides Marcel Hartel and Löwen, Seth Antwi is the only midfielder with a positive goals added impact. They have to add at the position, and they have to decide if Miggy Perez is going to be given a chance after his performance in MLS NEXT Pro this season. Alfredo Morales, Durkin, and Aki Watts were -1.7 goals against the average MLS midfield… and while goals added isn’t the perfect stat for defensive impact, they aren’t generating enough going forward either. 

So, what are they to do? Maybe the answer is committing to Edu Löwen as the deep-lying midfielder – he won 10 of 15 duels vs LAFC and made 7 tackles – while finding a Wil Trapp-type of midfielder who can disrupt in the midfield without sacrificing fouls in dangerous areas, or giving Miggy Perez the ball in a crucial season for his development.

It shouldn’t be a position that gives the club so many problems, and the loss to LAFC just highlighted how important that one position will be if they are to turn around next season. 

Speaking of hard to fill positions…

The LAFC performance also highlighted just how dire the three season long search for a Left Back has been.

It’s not unexpected; the system asks a lot of its fullbacks. They need to be able to bomb forward in transition, connecting through Löwen and Hartel, while having enough range and pace to track back and guard the wide spaces. It’s clear that the current options aren’t working in that ethos.

Wallem has been great in the attack on the right. He’s created 5.1 xG+xA this season, along with 0.93 goals added, but the left side has not been as fruitful. Jay Reid, Devin Padelford, and Jaziel Orozco haven’t moved that g+ number forward despite some promising moments, and the loan to bring in Padelford gives away the lack of depth throughout the organization.

It’s easy to point at Anthony Markanich’s success in Minnesota and think that they’ve simply mishandled the position, but Markanich’s role in Minnesota is a complete 180 vs the range he was expected to cover in St. Louis. 

Which could speak to the problem, has it been in the club’s talent evaluation?

It's not that simple. Markanich isn’t expected to cover end line to end line transition after transition; it’s not how the Loons play, so the style fits what he brings to the table vs his pitfalls in St. Louis. Then, they utilize his athleticism in the air to create chaos on set pieces and long throw ins.

That speaks volumes. 

Jay Reid could still be the option, but his pre-season injury derailed his momentum this season, leading to the Padelford loan. Reid’s profile is exactly what CITY SC needs at the position: speed, creativity with the ball, and the commitment to cover touchline to touchline while being asked to slide in as the third defender while Wallem or Totland join the attack. 

Markanich wasn’t doing that in St. Louis, John Nelson wasn’t doing that in St. Louis, but there are good LBs who will, and they have to acquire one, they need to improve depth in the wide spaces.

Conclusion

The Sporting Director search will influence these answers, how much they want to disrupt the roster from the get go, and what skills they value differently from Lutz Pfannenstiel.

The final two matches of the season will help clarify this list. Matches against Austin and RSL should be matchups that CITY SC feel they can win – and they have to come into 2026 with that expectation. How Critchley can motivate his squad in response to the LAFC drumming will be important to follow. The players want to prove that Critchley is the man for the job, but they’ll have to win out to give him a fighting chance. 

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