Can these MLS NEXT Pro standouts make the jump?

Success in MLS NEXT Pro does not guarantee MLS success, nor does a young player have to have been a contributor in MLS NEXT Pro to become a successful player in MLS. However, there has been a growing trend of great MLSNP players converting developmental platitudes into first-team contributions. 

MLSNP finds itself in an interesting place, not solely a developmental league, but not the clear jump in physicality that players experienced when MLS2 squads played in the USL Championship.

Does that mean that predicting success is only possible in younger players who excel in the league? Or do post-collegiates who find their sea legs in tier 3 of US Soccer have a chance at first team success? 

Last season, four players in MLSNP averaged over an expected goal contribution per 96 minutes while playing over 1000 minutes (so many qualifiers, I know).

Those players: Minnesota’s Logan Dorsey (23), Chicago’s Jason Shokalook (23), St. Louis's Mykhi Joyner, and Philadelphia’s Cavan Sullivan (16), should all have opportunities in MLS this season, but what are the odds that those numbers predict future success when their number is called?

In a way, the two younger players are easier to project. Mykhi Joyner made 14 appearances with St. Louis last season, and Sullivan made his 20th appearance across all competitions in the Union’s 5-0 win over Defense Force in Trinidad and Tobago this week. 

So, let’s start with the more pressing question: Does MLSNP success for graduates of NCAA soccer forecast MLS success?

Logan Dorsey: 23 years old, Minnesota United FC. 

2025 stats: 1.2 expected goal contributions per 96’, actual goal contributions 1.03, 4.30 goals added. 

Despite transforming into the hottest striker over the back half of the season, Dorsey is still far from a sure thing heading into 2026.

The 2025 SuperDraft pick started the season with four goal contributions in three matches, but a leg injury kept him out for almost two months. He struggled to regain his form until August, before he scored 9 goals and 3 assists over the final 12 matches of the season.

Dorsey’s output was impressive, but while he has been with the first team through training camp, he hasn’t been rewarded with a first-team contract ahead of the 2026 season. 

MNUFC aren’t in dire need of an attacker to start the season. However, if DP striker Kelvin Yeboah’s output continues to lag through the first few months of the season under new manager Cameron Knowles, then it’s not hard to see a scenario where the Loons change direction this summer. Out of Yeboah’s 9 goals last season, 8 were against sides that missed the playoffs, but presumably that was a catalyst in acquiring Tomas Chancalay from New England.

It’s tough to see a role for Dorsey off the jump. 

The closest analog to Logan Dorsey’s 2025 season is St. Louis CITY SC striker Brendan McSorley. Like Dorsey, McSorley finished 2024 on a tear, spent the preseason with the first team, and returned to CITY2 until injuries and general form opened an opportunity for him to earn his spot in MLS. 

It’s not a perfect comparison, but it’s the path that most SuperDraft picks will be happy to take. 

Dorsey seems to have the skills and Soccer IQ to make the jump, but in Minnesota’s system, his dual win rate and defensive numbers have to improve, and he’ll need some luck to make an impact.

He does have this in his locker, though.

Jason Shokalook: 23 years old, Chicago Fire. 

2025 stats: Expected goal contributions per 96’ 1.03, actual goal contributions 1.25, 3.00 goals added.

Unlike Dorsey, Shokalook has his contract, but just like Dorsey, his “breakthrough” would be as crucial depth behind a DP striker. Which should be a role he can excel in if given the opportunities in Gregg Berhalter's attack. 

Shokalook’s physical characteristics were impressive last season. He was a dangerous option on set pieces, won balls in the air, and created 1.29 scoring chances per 90 minutes. 

Chicago has their DP9 in Hugo Cuypers, but one of Shokalook and Poreba has to be able to step in for the Belgian striker who played over 3000 minutes last season. As effective as he was in those minutes, it’s not a sustainable workload for any striker, let alone a striker also navigating the MLS travel schedule.

Last year’s season opener against the Crew was the only time Cuypers played less than 70 minutes in MLS play, and with Tom Barlow heading to Cincinnati, the gate is wide open for Shokalook to charge in and take some minutes, even if it’s off the bench to offer a late match change of pace.

That’s not exactly the recipe for a breakout, and it’s worth wondering if Shokalook’s physical play will be as effective in a league with more physical CBs. 

I worry about Shokalook’s first touch in key areas, especially in a system that values passes into the striker to hold up the ball, but he succeeded on low touch volume last season, which should bode well for appearances off the bench. 

Mykhi Joyner: 19 years old, St. Louis CITY SC.

2025 stats: Expected goal contributions per 96’ 1.13, actual goal contributions 1.47, 1.75 goals added.

Alright, let’s get into the good stuff. 

Mykhi Joyner was "late" in his development, which meant that the buzz about his rise through the Academy into MLSNP play went under the radar before eventually landing on the USYNT radar towards the end of 2024. Then, some mismanagement with first team stalled what should have been a steep rise in minutes last season, only seeing consistent opportunities after David Critchley took over as caretaker manager in St. Louis. 

It’s been frustrating at times. 

Joyner’s skill is apparent; he dominated MLSNP in 2024 and picked up where he left off in 2025 when he bounced back down to CITY 2 throughout the season. Joyner was great in the wide spaces, and became undeniable the moment he dropped his shoulder around a defender in the final third.

His attacking numbers are somewhat augmented by the number of penalties CITY2 has won over the past two seasons, but Joyner was the key reason CITY2 won most of those penalties and has been automatic from the spot.

Now, while Joyner has been clinical in NEXT Pro, and his short stints in MLS look equally as promising, he’ll have to find success through an adjustment period this season.

In Yoann Damet’s 3-4-3, he will swap from the left side to the right, playing underneath the striker in a dual 10 role. Through preseason, he swapped with the wingback at times to receive the ball in space and carry forward to create moments where he can combine with Conrad Wallem or take the ball inside. Damet is focused on creating opportunities where Joyner can receive the ball and cut in to rip a left-footed shot, even if that means sacrificing some of those moments isolated in the wide spaces. There's an added benefit in not asking a promising young attacker to take on extra responsibilities as a wingback.

Damet has been careful in heaping too much praise on Joyner through the preseason, insisting that Joyner has room to grow, but it seems clear that he will have plenty of opportunities to prove himself on the ball over the course of the season. 

“There are a lot of areas of his game that can improve,” Damet said after the club returned from Coachella last week. “He's a talented player for sure. But the conversation is more around how he's showing up, how he's preparing every day, and about the level of his performances. And, of course, at some point, he needs to have an understanding of what's expected from us. 
And he does, but it's a different picture for him, and I think it's good to see him in those areas. I'm not close-minded about how we're gonna use him or where we're gonna use him, but for now, I think that's where he could have a little bit more influence in the book.”

Joyner's confidence has grown in leaps and bounds over the past season, but it’s important to remember that development isn’t linear... but there is some precedent for a player experiencing MLS play and turning that into explosive growth over the offseason.

Joyner’s own career mimics that trajectory.

13 MLSNP appearances in 2023 resulted in just one goal before he scored 43 goals in 49 appearances over the next two seasons. Joyner appeared 13 times in MLS last season, scoring his first goal against Houston late in the season. While Joyner won’t score 18 goals this season… it would be a nice bit of symmetry.  

A breakout for Joyner would be over 1000 minutes and over 10 goal contributions. It's not expected but he is capable of it, and St. Louis would certainly welcome the contributions. 

Cavan Sullivan: 16 years old, Philadelphia Union.

2025 stats: Expected goal contributions per 96’ 1.01, actual goal contributions 1.02,  2.37 goals added.

While Mykhi Joyner is a bit of a dark horse outside of soccer sicko circles, Cavan Sullivan – the Manchester City-bound teenager – is already showing signs of breaking out this season. 

Hot take: Cavan Sullivan is pretty good.

Obviously, the limiting factor to this point in Sullivan’s young career has been his ability to handle the physicality. He’s technically talented, reads the game well, but if he doesn’t have the confidence to fight through bodies to earn positioning, then he’s going to struggle in the first team. 

I’ve seen enough. He has the talent to earn minutes in the league, but the most important question is: Can he fit into a Bradley Carnell-managed scheme? 

In CONCACAF play, Sullivan replaced Milan Illoski on the left side of Philadelphia’s 4-2-2-2/4-4-2, which seemed to work pretty well. Sullivan was strong on the ball despite a lot of physical play. He drove the endline, was allowed creativity – to a point – and showed a tenacity pushing the ball forward that is bound to earn more opportunities from Carnell. 

The final two minutes of the official CONCACAF highlight package are the Cavan Sullivan show. 

That should encourage both the Union fans and Manchester City execs monitoring Sullivan's development. Now, it’s one thing to do that to Defense Force, it’s another to find that success against NYCFC after playing a midweek return leg.  

It’s finding that consistency and taking care of the little things in his game, so Carnell isn’t given an excuse to feel apprehensive about his usage. 

What’s a breakout for Sullivan? The sky is the limit, but a 16-year-old with over 10 goal contributions would raise some eyebrows.

Additional reading:

These aren't the only four breakout candidates in MLS this season, Kim McCauley of The Transfer Flow also talked her favorite young players (more Mykhi Joyner love): Read Here.

The, now, independent MLS expert Matthew Doyle released his MLS tiers for this upcoming season, a good primer ahead of tomorrow's kickoff: Read Here.

Jason Anderson has also joined the ghost army, if you're looking for more in depth DC United and Washington Spirit reporting: Read Here.

Following this week's St. Louis CITY SC media day, I profiled some of the common refrains in St. Louis Magazine, in short, the improved communication has been noted: Read Here.